Thai economy is uncertain, BOT expects to recover as far as COVID 3Q65

Ms. Chayawadee Chaiyanan, Senior Director Macroeconomic Department Bank of Thailand (BOT) Revealed that the Thai economy in the first quarter of this year Expected to be reduced somewhat From the outbreak of the new coronavirus It is expected that the Thai economy will recover before the COVID-19 crisis in the third quarter of 2022, from the previous expected recovery in the second quarter of 2022, which is one quarter slower.

There are also risks to be monitored, such as the increase in non-performing debt from the expired measures. And the state tax income may be collected less Because people have reduced incomes And affect the economic stimulus in the next phase Therefore, in the future, the Thai economy is still very uncertain and risk factors.

For the economic conditions in January 2021 The impact of the new COVID-19 outbreak has been seen more clearly, but the Thai economy is not as affected as the first outbreak. With support from government measures Half of the whole project We travel together To help support the economy Stimulate domestic consumption And continually promising Because there is a project we win And m 33 we love each other Helping to stimulate spending and have a positive effect on the Thai economy until May 2021.

Read: NESDB hopes to create a positive force for the tourism sector Help revive the economy

In addition, what must be monitored is the vulnerability of the labor market. Most of the impacts were in areas that announced stricter measures And businesses related to the tourism sector It is believed that after this the Thai economy will recover from the gradual easing of economic activity. In line with government measures Exports that recovered following trading partner countries that continued to recover. It is hoped that all measures will help the economy recover, and the government will have to look after measures to take care of them as well.

However, after the new coronavirus outbreak, the survey found that Hawker and stalls professionals Revenue fell more than 50%. Independent operators such as taxis, motorbikes, revenue fell 60-90% and spas and massage parlors were severely affected. Incomes drop by more than 50% and possibly up to 90% in some areas.

“The BOT expects foreign tourists to gradually enter in the second half of the year. But there is still high uncertainty The effectiveness of the vaccine must be monitored. Guidelines for opening a country And depends on many issues I hope that more foreign tourists come to Thailand in the second half of the year. The Bank of Thailand is preparing to review the economic forecast in March. And published at the end of March Which preliminary is quite consistent with other agencies assessed Whether it is an overall economic recovery But there are enough inequality “

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