| Iran’s top leader, Ayatollah Sayed Ali Hamenei, addressed air force commanders ahead of the 42nd anniversary of the Iranian Revolution in Tehran on February 7, 2021 (local time), saying, “If the United States wants to return to Iran’s nuclear agreement, the United States will first impose sanctions. It must be completely lifted.” © AFP=News1 © News1 Reporter Dongmyeong Woo |
The Financial Times (FT) evaluated on the 22nd (local time) that the last-minute agreement between the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and Iran opened a window of diplomacy to resume the Iranian nuclear agreement. Even after the inauguration of President Joe Biden, the distance between the United States and Iran has not narrowed, and the international community is paying attention to whether the dialogue will progress as the European Union (EU) also mediated.
Iran, which has pressured the United States by calling for the return of the 2015 Nuclear Agreement (JCPOA) between Germany and Iran and the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council including the United States, China, Russia, United Kingdom and France, which former President Donald Trump unilaterally withdrew in 2018. Starting this week, there was a’super storm’ to disallow the IAEA to inspect its nuclear facilities.
In response, IAEA Secretary General Rafael Grossi urgently flew to Iran on the 20th, and even if an emergency inspection ceased, the watchdog agreed to allow visits to the nuclear facility for three months, and temporarily closed the situation and returned.
First of all, it is an evaluation that he made time by leaving room for’diplomacy’. “This is a diplomatic achievement that has made room for dialogue,” said Eli Jeranmaye, an Iranian expert on the European Union’s Foreign Relations Committee. “Political space must be set aside for several months until the US and Iran take practical steps to resume the nuclear agreement.”
First of all, Iran has expressed its intention to accept the informal talks proposed by the high-ranking EU foreign and security policy representative Joseph Borrell. The United States has also made it clear that it is willing to talk with the parties to revert to the nuclear agreement. A US diplomatic source told the FT that “we are making a decision to help put diplomacy on track.”
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| U.S. President Joe Biden speaks at the White House in Washington on February 22, 2021 (local time) on American relief plans. © AFP=News1 © News1 Reporter Dongmyeong Woo |
But making real progress doesn’t seem simple. Iran is hoping that the United States will return to the agreement as originally proposed in 2015, but there are high voices in the United States.
Mike Singh, who was in charge of Middle East policy in the George W. Bush administration, said, “Simple transaction re-entry in the Trump era without sanctions can make it difficult to proceed to a’serious and binding transaction’.” “Returning to the agreement can be a bit tricky. “He said.
Even in the US House of Representatives, 23 pro-Israeli Democrats oppose the return to the original agreement. Negotiations with Iranian enemies in the Middle East, including Israel as well as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), are also difficult. US Secretary of State Tony Blincoln announced at the Geneva disarmament meeting the day before that he would strengthen and expand the existing agreement and reduce Iran’s missile development.
Accordingly, in Iranian politics, there is a voice saying that the return of the US dialogue itself is “empty spoon” (Rep. Amir Hussein Gazizade) and has no meaning. Another variable is that the voices of hard-liners are rising ahead of the June presidential election in Iran.
John Wolfstal, who served as the Obama administration’s arms control officer, said, “We are creating conditions so that Iran has no choice but to re-enter negotiations,” he said. “The Biden government has made it clear that it will not rush negotiations.”
Iranian Ayatollah Ali Hamenei, who is in a hurry to lift economic sanctions, said, “I will not yield to pressure from the United States and Europe,” and “if necessary, the level of uranium enrichment can be increased to 60%.”
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