[환율마감] Won-dollar rebounded only on six trading days, and the dollar strengthened on the surge in US interest rates

▲ Right is the intraday flow of the won dollar exchange rate on the 17th (Bank of Korea, check)

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The won-dollar exchange rate rose after six trading days. This is because the 10-year US bond yield exceeded 1.3% amid inflation concerns overnight, and the dollar was strong in the global financial market. The domestic stock market was also weak, and foreigners turned to net selling after 4 trading days in the KOSPI market.

On the other hand, overseas responded with short (dollar selling). At the curtain board, it was the appearance of liquidating the short position. In the Asian market, the 10-year U.S. bond yield was less than 1.3%.

Foreign exchange market participants assessed that the global dollar appreciation had an effect. The day before, it was temporarily pushed to 1097 won, but I thought I had confirmed the low. From the point of view, it was the timing for a low-priced buy. For the time being, I thought that foreign stock movements would be important. As the dividend season approaches from March to April, it is expected that the won and the dollar will continue to face upward pressure. By the end of this month, the won and the dollar are expected to go between 1100 won and 1105 won and 1115 won.

On the 17th, the won-dollar exchange rate in the Seoul foreign exchange market ended at 1107.5 won, up 7.4 won (0.67%) from the previous day. It is the first time since the 5th (5.2 won, 0.46%) that the won and the dollar have risen.

During the intraday, it rose to 1110.4 won and exceeded 1110 won for the first time since the 10th (1114.0 won during the intraday). The won/dollar starting at 1108.7 won fell to 1105.5 won. The intraday fluctuation was 4.9 won.

The offshore exchange rate rose for the second day. In the difference-settled futures exchange (NDF) market, one-month won-dollar contracts were priced at 1108.5/1109.0, up 8.65 won from the closing price of the spot exchange.

“We checked the lows yesterday,” said a foreign exchange dealer at the banking sector. At the beginning of the year, it was 1080 won, and in February, it reverted about half from 1,130 won. After starting the gap-up, it was pushed back to supply and demand, and was lifted at the last minute. “I bought dollars offshore,” he said. “The same news is repeating. Last night, the expected inflation rose, and the 10-year US bond yield settled at 1.3%. Global politics is also in an uneasy state due to unpleasant news in the US and in the Middle East. The situation of Corona 19 continues, and Biden’s $1.9 trillion stimulus plan is just words and has yet to be implemented. In the midst of this, inflation was rising, so it was added in dollars. First of all, the US economy will recover and the money will be released. It was the atmosphere that the Ild first sold Tunisian yen and euro and then bought dollars.”

He also said, “It was pushed to 1097 won as the 1102 won to 1103 won, which was the support line of the won and the dollar, collapsed, but they are supporting 1100 won again. He said, “It looks like it’s getting to the bottom and rising,” he said. “In March and April, the dividend will go out quite a bit. The global dollar movement is also moving, but it is likely to be greatly affected by the supply and demand of foreigners in the stock market. Individuals always buy and sell pension funds and institutions. On the other hand, foreigners buy stocks in trillions when they sell stocks and 200 to 300 billion won when buying. Samsung Electronics is also in a hurry. 1Q is expected to maintain an uptrend after recording a low with the opening on January 4th. “I am looking at between 1105 won and 1115 won this month.”

“There was no big direction. It was more operatic than expected. The offshore was still keeping the short view in check. Although the stock price fell, it seems that the interest rate of the US bond fell below 1.3% in the Asian market had an effect. “That was not the case that pushed it all the time. I threw a short position in the morning on the curtain board. The offer atmosphere was so strong that it was limited to follow the weak yuan.”

He continued, “We have a strong dollar outlook. For the time being, the 1120 won high will be solid. In the offshore side, it is turning to sell, but rather than pushing for a bold sell, it is an atmosphere of liquidation during the intraday. By the end of this month, the won and the dollar are expected to be between 1110 won and 1115 won.”

As of 3:55 pm, the dollar and yen fell 0.06 yen (0.06%) to 105.93 yen, the euro and dollar fell by 0.0017 dollars (0.14%) to 1.2088 dollars, and the offshore dollar and yuan (CNH) was 0.0015 yuan (0.23%). It is recording a decline of 6.4796 yuan.

In the stock market, the KOSPI closed at 3133.73, down 29.52 points (0.93%). Foreigners sold 5142 trillion won worth of money in the KOSPI market and converted to net selling after 4 trading days.

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