WASHINGTON.- It is a scene for another disagreement: Joe Biden arrived at the White House with more kilometers in Latin America than his predecessors and with the desire to repair ties with the world, but the region is fractured, dismembered in dictatorships, populisms, left and right governments. Biden looks for partners, but in Washington they look south and no one jumps out.
“The problem is that you have a huge paradox,” says Arturo Sarukhán, consultant in international relations and Mexican ambassador to the United States during the government of Felipe Calderón. “An administration headed by a president who knows the region like no other predecessor has arrived, no other vice president traveled as many times as Biden to Latin America, and no president has the experience, the mileage, the hours of foreign policy like this president. And the region is disarmed as ever, headless of leadership, with abandoned regional concertation mechanisms, “he closes.
Andrés Manuel López Obrador and Jair Bolsonaro, presidents of Mexico and Brazil, the two largest countries, badly started their ties with the White House. They were the last to acknowledge Biden’s triumph, and Bolsonaro never hid his predilection for Donald Trump. Sebastián Piñera of Chile, perhaps the president whom Biden knows best, and the first with whom he spoke as president-elect, will leave office this year. Iván Duque, from Colombia, Washington’s strategic partner, will leave next year.
Against this background, there are those who believe that Alberto Fernández may be the candidate – and in the Government they support this vision -, but there are doubts about whether he can really be a reliable partner, or that Argentina can play a regional role.
“The recurring theme of Argentine economic dysfunction will mean that when this team thinks of Argentina, the immediate thing they are going to think of is a ‘crisis’, and little broadband to try to find an axis of continental agreement,” said Sarukhán.
For the expert, connoisseur behind the scenes of the capital of the United States, a plausible outcome in this scenario is that Latin America misses a “unique opportunity” of having a president who has dedicated broadband of his political career to the region, and most likely the new administration, instead of developing global visions to face the challenges of the continent, ends up designing “à la carte policies”, a compartmentalized approach, country to country, or with coalitions for specific issues on which there is consensus.
James Lindsay, vice president of the Council on International Relations (CFR), agreed that finding regional partners will be a challenge for the White House.
“I think Biden faces a challenge looking at Latin America where there are no obvious partners to work with. Normally, when we think about US policy toward Latin America, it builds around bilateral relations, and you start to think about the most important countries in the region. You think of Mexico, you think of Brazil, you think of Argentina, Colombia. And as Biden’s team looks around, it’s not clear that he has good partners in any of those countries.“Lindsay stated.
The pandemic, which locked each country in its own scourge, further complicates the scenario. López Obrador and Bolsonaro are far from offering a foreign policy that closes Washington, and they are heading towards clashes with Biden on immigration, human rights, defense of democracy or the fight against climate change.
“López Obrador had a very good relationship with Trump, in large part because the Trump administration paid little attention to what the López Obrador administration was doing at the national level,” Lindsay recalled.
“If you go to South America, you look at Brazil, the president of Brazil, Bolsonaro, doesn’t seem like an obvious potential candidate to partner with Biden. Clearly, President Bolsonaro had a much closer relationship with President Trump. If you look towards On the other hand, I am not sure, given Argentina’s internal problems, if it is ready or has the capacity to play an important role in the region, “he explained.
Gap
Michael Shifter, president of the Inter-American Dialogue, believes that the arrival of Biden to the presidency generates a lot of optimism and expectation regarding Latin America, but that, at the same time, there is a gap, a gap between Washington and the region that will play against of building a strong alliance.
“No one doubts that Biden knows the region, that he cares about the region. I think he’s very sincere, he’s not opportunistic. He hooked up well with the region, with its leaders, and understands the politics of the region,” he summarizes.
However, Shifter believes that the region is very complicated, partners are missing and Biden will be consumed by the multiple internal crises of the United States, which, ultimately, will determine the success or failure of your management. “He has no choice but to tackle this. He has a good team, but he will have to focus all his attention on domestic politics, and what is left over there will be other more urgent crises in the world in China, Russia, Iran, North Korea.” lists.
Biden will still need partners to carry out his regional policy, and in the current context, with few attractive partners and some even problematic, Argentina, Shifter points out, appears well positioned, for example, to get to play a role if a new one occurs. attempt to build a democratic transition in Venezuela.
“The game in Venezuela begins again. I can imagine a possible scenario in which the government of Alberto Fernández can play a constructive role to achieve a political agreement in Venezuela, and seek a democratic transition,” he said.
“I don’t think we’ll go back to carnal relations,” Shifter added, “but I can imagine coalitions and alliances on particular issues. I don’t think it’s out of the question that Argentina can play an interesting role, have a good relationship with Biden. But the fact is that the region is not doing well, and some of the traditional partners have governments that are going to clash with the Biden administration. In this context, you have to be flexible and pragmatic, and Argentina is an interesting option. “
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