Greenpeace Magazine | SWP expert expects a “politically very turbulent year” in Russia

Berlin (dpa) – According to the assessment of Russia expert Janis Kluge, the Russian power apparatus has enough instruments available to stifle the current protests by government critics. Kluge told Deutsche Welle on Wednesday in an interview that many Russians were openly dissatisfied with the imprisonment of Kremlin opponent Alexej Navalny. He believes that “the Russian state has the means in hand to suspend this impulse to protest and will ultimately succeed in preventing people from taking to the streets permanently”. The parliamentary elections in autumn could give rise to protests again. “In this sense, the year will be politically very turbulent in Russia,” said the Russia expert from the Science and Politics Foundation (SWP).

Navalny was convicted on Tuesday of serving a suspended three-and-a-half-year prison sentence for fraud and embezzlement for violating parole terms. Taking into account house arrest and detention periods, he could be released in October 2023. But Kluge said he does not expect Navalny to be released before the presidential election in 2024. Further ongoing proceedings against Navalny could be used to extend his time in prison: “As long as the Kremlin sees him as a threat, he will remain in prison.”

Russia is increasingly taking its domestic political decisions independently of institutions such as the Council of Europe and the European Court of Human Rights. Despite some very clear reactions in Europe, it is difficult for the European Union to «speak with one voice», said Kluge. However, he believes that isolated sanctions in connection with the Navalny case are conceivable.

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