[외환브리핑]Continued fear of mutant virus. Strong dollar forecast

[이데일리 이윤화 기자] The won-dollar exchange rate is expected to rise compared to the previous day on a weakening of risk preferences and a strong dollar, amid strengthening quarantine measures in major countries and concerns about delays in vaccination.

According to the Seoul Foreign Exchange Brokerage on the 26th, the one-month transaction in the New York difference settlement futures exchange (NDF) market was priced at 1102.70 won. Considering the 1-month swap point (0.05 won), it is expected to start higher by 1.95 won from the closing price (1102.65 won) on the previous trading day.

Among the major European countries, France has announced a plan to participate in a hard lockdown (economic blockade) to block the COVID-19 mutant virus, and concerns over delays in vaccine supply and vaccination have added, leading to the creation of an atmosphere of risk-off in the financial market excluding technology stocks. Accordingly, the domestic stock market is also likely to decline in the conversion of foreigners’ net selling, and it is expected to lead to increased pressure on the won.

On the 25th (local time), the New York Stock Exchange showed mixed trends. On the New York Stock Exchange, the Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 index closed at 3855.36, up 0.36% from the previous trading day. The Nasdaq Index, which is centered on technology stocks, rose 0.69% to close at 13,635.99. Both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ are all-time highs. On the other hand, the Dow Jones 30 Industrial Average fell 0.12% to 3960.07.

The dollar index traded at 90.361, up 0.124% from the previous trading day. The UK will tighten immigration controls to prevent the spread of the mutant virus, and Oslo, Norway, has stepped up containment measures to contain the UK-originating mutant virus infection. Sweden has also issued a ban on travel from Norway, and France is expected to raise its quarantine level within a few days.

Stock markets in major European countries fell all at once due to the fear of the COVID-19 mutant virus. The UK London Stock Exchange’s FTSE 100 index closed at 6638.85, down 0.84%. Germany’s Frankfurt stock market’s DAX 30 index fell 1.66%, while the French Parisian stock market’s CAC 40 index fell 1.57%. The Euro Stoxx 50 index, a pan-European index, also closed at 3553.14, down 1.37%.

Meanwhile, Anthony Pouch, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), an infectious disease authority in the United States, recently remarked that he is concerned about delays in the second vaccination. He argued that the governments of major countries should increase the interval between the first and second vaccinations in order to expand vaccinations, and that it should proceed according to a set schedule. On the 25th (local time), 10-year Treasury bond yields plunged 5.33% to 1.033, as concerns over economic outlook increased due to blockades by major countries.

Min Kyung-won, a researcher at Woori Bank, said, “The response to the sale of export companies including heavy industry orders is stiff, but even considering the specificity at the end of the month, the impact on supply and demand has decreased compared to last week.” “We expect a limited increase around the early and mid-1100 won in a tight balance between the short cover and the low-priced purchase and the end-of-month nego.”

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