The theme of today’s report is “Rainbow panels on the horizon of electric vehicles, roses on the feet of NB”.
Wanbao Investment Gu Cai Mingzhang emphasized that Taiwan stocks have reached 16,000 points and entered a high-end consolidation. Internal factors include the increase in local cases and the increase in the long holiday of the Chinese New Year, which has increased profitability and pressure. External factors are more important. FocusUSDTrend, the Biden administration, which will come to power this week, proposed a scale of 1.9 trillionUSDThe stimulus plan is expected to be approved by Congress from mid-February to mid-March, but now the two parties each hold 50 seats in the Senate.
Major bills like the stimulus plan must get 60 votes to pass, and the Democrats will have to win 10 more Republican seats. Therefore, Biden’s final stimulus plan will be lower than the original plan. Goldman Sachs estimates that it will be about 1 trillion.USD.The hearing of Yellen’s tenure as finance minister was held this week, and the future Biden administration’s fiscal policy trader, however, reported that he no longer supports the weakUSD, How to pay attention to the actual situation, these two major events make the recentUSDThe index rebounded back above 90 points.
The mid-term trend of Taiwan stocks depends most importantly onUSDIfUSDIf it rebounds, the capital market of Taiwan stocks will fade. It is less than three weeks before the closure of the Chinese New Year on February 5. The current Taiwan stock market, short, medium and long-term technical indicators are at the same time overheating, and historical experience Taiwan stocks tend to be between 1 and After the high in February, it was revised back.
For example, the 1990 high of 12,682 points fell in February of the lunar calendar, and the 2000 high of 10,393 points also appeared in February. The high of 12,197 points in January last year also fell before the lunar calendar.
Wanbao Investment Gu Cai Mingzhang emphasized that the conclusion is that when Taiwan stocks have historically been large, retail investors are more fanatical and optimistic when the funds in the Chinese New Year are the most loose, and they usually have to reverse their guard. Before the closure of the customs in the lunar calendar, retail traders had three amulets.
The three talismans include controlling the shareholding ratio, setting stop-profit and stop-loss for individual stocks, and considering the fundamentals of the individual stock industry before buying stocks. As long as the implementation of the three amulets is equivalent to controlling the overall risk, the final winner may not be the person who earns the most now, but the person who makes the least loss in the future wave of mid-term corrections, and the person who earns the small loss, will be the final winner. .
After the intense turbulence of the week’s big market, the lost ground was regained dramatically.USDThe trend, but the short-term trend depends on the financing balance of retail chips. Last Friday, the financing dropped by more than 400 points from the top and bottom of the market, which dropped by 3.2 billion yuan. It also washed out some floats in the early trading on Monday and counterattacked in the late trading.
TSMC (2330-TW) It is still the mountain of protection of the country, but it is definitely not the indestructible body of King Kong. As soon as this happens, TSMC will make up for the decline.USDIt began to play strongly, and began to shake the bullish pattern of US stocks. TSMC has become the focus of foreign capital withdrawals in Taiwan stocks. No matter how retail investors rush to TSMC, they will not be able to fight foreign selling pressure.
Next, TSMC announced that capital expenditures this year will be significantly increased to 25-28 billion yuanUSD, Much higher than the 22 billion expected by the marketUSD, This is a long-term benefit, because there is investment, there will be future growth. However, the actual earnings growth of TSMC this year may slow down. The EPS in the first quarter is estimated to be 5.37 yuan, which is still at a high level. In the second quarter, due to customer inventory adjustments, it will be less than 5 yuan. Capital expenditures will peak in the second half of the year and will eat up the surplus. The estimated EPS is 23 yuan per year, an increase of 15% compared to last year’s 19.98 yuan, which is lower than the 50% increase in EPS in 2020.
For growth stocks such as TSMC, the performance of stock prices determines the strength of revenue growth. The annual stock price of strong earnings growth has risen by 60% last year. Earnings growth this year has slowed down, and it will not replicate the crazy increase of last year. . However, since January this year, TSMC has risen by another 14%. Such an increase is too early to reflect, and there is a risk if it rises again.
The collective carnival of Tesla and Chinese electric vehicles Weilai, Ideal, Xiaopeng, and BYD has caused crazy electric vehicle issues around the world. Even domestic political TV programs have recently talked about electric vehicles and drifted with the crowd. This is an overheated phenomenon. How long it will be hot, I don’t know, but the relevant stocks are definitely on the upscale.
Some people will continue to fight, but they must set a profit point, and those who don’t have to don’t get in the car. Even political programs talk about electric cars, which confirms the theory of shoeshine boys. From the fourth quarter to the first quarter of the next year, Taiwan stocks are usually dreaming about the market. The investment psychology looks at the rainbow in the sky, but ignores the roses at the feet. He does not know that the rainbow is short, and it is easy to get stuck if you are not sure of the instant selling point.
Wanbao Investment Gu Cai Mingzhang emphasized that most people do not know the fact that electric vehicle revenue accounts for a very low proportion of Tesla’s supply chain trade union with the purest pedigree-KY(3665-TW)’S electric vehicle revenue accounted for 15-20%, which is already the highest stock. The EPS in the first three quarters of last year was 9.5 yuan, and the annual estimate was 14 yuan. This year, we look at 16 yuan, and the current price of the price-earnings ratio is 18 times. However, Hon Hai (2317-TW) The group’s recent series of major moves into the electric vehicle field have only been planned, and the actual electric vehicle foundry is not yet mature.
The world’s top five TV brands have recently expanded their panel orders, which are 20% to 30% higher than the original estimate. The price increases to grab the supply. The quotations of TV panels in the first half of this year have increased by 40%, which is double the expected increase. The quotations will return to the last 2017 Gao Feng, AUO (2409-TW), Innolux (3481-TW) EPS are respectively 3.3 yuan and 3.37 yuan, but according to conservative market forecasts, Panel Shuanghu’s EPS is estimated at 1.8 yuan this year, and the P/E ratio calculated at the current price is 8 times, which is almost the price of Chinese cabbage.
This year, Apple’s new iMac will undergo a major facelift. For the first time in the past 10 years, the new design will be removed.6456-TW)Unfavorable, the restoration of the physical function keys is good for the fine element (2387-TW) Great profits. Jingyuan’s EPS was more than 6 yuan last year. This year, it is even higher at 7 yuan. The P/E ratio is less than 10 times, because this year is expected to pay 4 to 5 yuan in dividends and the yield is estimated to be more than 6%.
Next, iMac will adopt a heat pipe cooling design, Shuanghong (3324-TW), Qihong (3017-TW) To benefit, Shuanghong’s EPS was estimated at RMB 13 last year and RMB 14.4 this year, with a P/E ratio of 17 times. Qihong’s EPS was estimated at RMB 5.6 last year and RMB 6 this year, and the P/E ratio is only 12 times.
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