The Consular Observatory of Companies in Difficulty has just published a study on business failures.
The number of openings of proceedings is declining both nationally (- 36% year-on-year on January 1, 2021) and Ile-de-France (- 35% year-on-year on January 1, 2021). This deceptive drop can be explained in part by business assistance schemes and by the reduction in assignments. It should probably be reversed as soon as the support measures are discontinued.
More precisely :
- At the national level, the initiation of proceedings is 49% below their 1993 level and 48% below that of 2009. They are below their lowest level in 2001.
- In Ile-de-France, reflecting the specificity of the region, these openings are nearly 55% below the historic peak of 1993; they are also well below the level reached in 2009 (by 42 points).
From a general point of view, due to periods of confinement and government aid, in Ile-de-France, there has been a very significant drop in the opening of legal proceedings. These developments take place in a context of a long-lasting global health crisis, accompanied by strong uncertainties and unpredictability throughout France and more particularly in areas of active circulation of the virus.
Unfavorable factors: worsening of the public deficit; historic contraction of GDP; deterioration in tourist attendance; deterioration of the business climate for wholesale trade; increased production costs; rising oil prices; decline in retail sales volumes; fall in consumption and household confidence; sharp deterioration in labor market prospects; sharp rise in household fears about the future economic situation; rising unemployment …
But some positive elements: slight increase in business creations; growth in manufacturing output; rebound in the business climate in France; revival of salaried employment in the private and public sector; decrease in AGS intervention requests in connection with the decrease in the number of failures; maintenance of the AGS contribution rate at 0.15% …
Over one year, year-on-year on January 1, 2021:
- The number of alerts from the president of the commercial court continues to decrease (- 28%).
- After a slight drop until the end of July, recourse to amicable procedures (ad hoc mandate and conciliation) increased significantly (+ 13%), more particularly due to the increase in conciliations (+ 35%).
- The number of safeguard and receivership procedures is very much reduced: – 48%.
- Judicial liquidations, for their part, also decrease very significantly: – 35%.
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