Global Markets Group Bank of Ayudhya (BAY) has a unanimous opinion on the outcome of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting to maintain the policy rate at a record low of 0.50% as expected. This marks the fifth consecutive policy rate stabilization after a total of 0.75% of policy interest was dropped earlier this year. While the baht slightly appreciated at 30.20 per dollar after the meeting.
Since the beginning of the year The baht depreciated by 0.6%, while the policymaking committee continued to express concerns over the sharp appreciation of the baht. Stating that additional appropriate measures will be considered. The Global Markets Group, Krungsri expects the baht to reach 29.50 in mid-2021 from the assumption that the US Federal Reserve It will continue to use a highly eased monetary policy and the Thai current account surplus remains high.
The MPC assesses that the Thai economy continues to recover. But the risks on the low side are still high This year’s GDP forecast has been revised to shrink -6.6% from -7.8%, due to a lower negative of exports to -7.4% from -8.2%, while 2021 GDP growth forecast. It fell to 3.2%, from 3.6% previously expected, to reflect the revised revision of the number of tourists to 5.5 million, from the previous 9 million forecast for the 2022 outlook. In terms of price pressure, the MPC expects headline inflation to return to its target range of 1-3% in the middle of next year and will remain close to the lower edge of the target frame.
By the MPC The next meeting is scheduled for February 3, 2021. The MPC’s opinion today also reflects a high level of uncertainty. The imminent situation depends on a new epidemic of COVID-19. And epidemic control measures While the tourism sector The effectiveness of vaccines and the proliferation of vaccine use, the labor market, as well as the coordination of government policy action, will be the key drivers for the next phase of economic recovery.
The MPC reiterated the need for effective liquidity distribution. Reinforces our view that The policy interest rate will remain unchanged throughout 2021, with more specific measures and more appropriate policy tools to support economic growth.
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