The COVID-19 disease burden during the first wave is nearly five times higher than an average influenza season. RIVM has calculated this. The burden of disease can be even higher, because the long-term consequences for a covid patient are still unknown. So reports Medical Contact.
According to model estimates by the National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), the excess mortality due to COVID-19 in the period March to July is approximately 9900 deaths. This estimated excess mortality corresponds to the 10,067 people in the period March to June 2020, for whom the attending physician reported covid-19 as the (suspected) cause of death. Assuming that all these people have actually died from corona, the mortality risk rises to 1.3 percent.
The disease burden of COVID-19 during the first wave has been estimated at 58,500 disability-adjusted life years (dalys). RIVM calculates this in the report ‘Public Health Future Outlook’ (VTV), in a section dealing with COVID-19. A daly is a measure of the number of years lost due to premature death (YLLs) and the number of years in which people cannot live in full health due to a disability (YLDs). One daly represents one year in which someone cannot live in full health. In an average influenza season, the estimated burden of disease is an average of 12,000 dalys. That number can fluctuate, in the 2017/2018 flu season it was 18,600.
Deaths
In the first wave, 6142 people with official COVID-19 deaths died. The burden of disease increases to 87,900 dalys if deaths and cases of illness are included that may also have had COVID-19 but have not been tested.
In 2020, COVID-19 will probably be the third cause of death in the Netherlands, after dementia (approximately 17,900) and lung cancer (10,300). The number of covid deaths could possibly be even higher. Stroke is the cause of approximately 8,400 deaths. The RIVM does not expect average life expectancy to decrease in the long term. The VTV report, which examines the future of public health, taking into account the current COVID-19 epidemic, has been released as an e-magazine.
The disease burden from Covid-19 during the first wave is nearly five times higher than an average influenza season, says #RIVM in report #VTV https://t.co/8GmiCBEUSd
– Medical Contact (@medischcontact) December 1, 2020
In a special issue of the #Public health Futures Outlook (VTV) describes how the #coronapandemie health in the Netherlands will change over time. Containing advice for better preparation for the future.
More information ➡️ https://t.co/UlO3o2ycDP pic.twitter.com/KyM7qtstbA
— RIVM (@rivm) November 27, 2020
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