Recession. Poland will return to its pre-pandemic GDP in early 2022 – chief economist of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development

The chief economist of the EBRD, Beata Javorcik, believes that Poland will return to its pre-pandemic GDP in early 2022.

Paweł Nierada from the management board of BGK indicates that no one can yet estimate how difficult the second wave of the crisis will be for the Polish economy.

– In 2021, we forecast a GDP growth of 3%, so it will not be a spectacular rebound. Poland will not return to its pre-pandemic level until the beginning of 2022, according to our forecasts. So these two years will be lost from the point of view of economic growth – Beata Javorcik, chief economist of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) said on Wednesday during Impact finance’20.

In her opinion, the first long-term change will be the reorganization of global value chains. – The world will realize how dependent it is on China and will seek to diversify its suppliers. There is a lot of talk about this model + China plus one + – that is, one Chinese supplier plus one from another country – she explained. She emphasized that this is an opportunity for Polish exports.

The second long-term trend – in her opinion – will be remote work. – I think that after the pandemic we will not return to the old model. We will work partly from home and partly from the office, it will be such a hybrid model. So, sitting at home in Warsaw or Krakow, you will be able to work for a company in Great Britain or Germany, only visiting the company from time to time. And this means an opportunity for Polish exports of services – she said.

Another aspect according to her will be going to the so-called green. – Greenness will become an element of competitiveness. And I think many companies will quickly realize that investing in green innovations will pay off, because there will be a high demand for such investments – she said.

At the same time, the economist assessed that “at this point the situation does not look very optimistic, while in the longer term, something positive may result from this pandemic”.

The president of PKO BP, Zbigniew Jagiełło, focuses on digitization. – The national cloud is currently underrated. As I see, it will be one of the important foundations for the development of Poland and Poles in the next 10 years, said Jagiełło, who was also one of the interlocutors of Wednesday’s Impact finance’20.

As he said, despite the fact that PKO BP is one of the leaders in the digitization process, he is convinced that the bank is “running too slowly”. In his opinion, the pandemic has shown that “if you are not digital, you can die”. – All those who have the opportunity to work and do remote business – win – he assessed.

As he added, the cloud for PKO BP is not a goal, but a tool – “the foundation for platforming the services we want to provide to our clients”. – Now we provide financial services – it is approx. 95 percent. our revenues. However, we are adding more services – he said.

Bank Pekao chief Leszek Skiba, when asked about the role of banks in the crisis caused by the pandemic, points out that the regulatory environment is “difficult” for banks.

– Assuming that interest rates will remain with us at this level for at least a few years, this (…) clearly means the consolidation process in such a way as to reduce costs, and the cost is always the operation of, for example, two offices – he said . In his opinion, Polish enterprises should still be financed. As he added, it is easier to do it, e.g. through the bond mechanism.

The first vice-president of Bank Gospodarstwa Krajowego, Paweł Nierada, emphasized that no one has yet been able to estimate how difficult the second wave of the crisis will be for the Polish economy.

+ On the one hand, these statistics – in terms of industry – are not as bad as you might expect. On the other hand, the service sector is suffering very much. All this will translate into an obvious deterioration of the companies’ results, and thus less activity in obtaining financing – he said.

In his opinion, the banks will have a harder time to make decisions. – On the one hand, deteriorating results for companies, and on the other hand, we are entering – also in Poland – very much in the footsteps of negative or at least zero interest rates – he said. This, coupled with increased regulatory requirements, will make the sector “harder”.

Business INTERIA.PL on Twitter. Join us and read economic news

–