The climax is nearing, but little attention is being paid to Brexit in Great Britain

Deadlines and Brexit, it has never been a happy marriage. Another week passed without a breakthrough.

There were some positive voices from Brussels this week. That a deal is 95 percent closed and that both sides are still making progress. But the last 5 percent have been the most difficult for a long time. “We are still quite a few meters from the finish line,” said committee chairman Ursula von der Leyen last Friday.

It keeps getting stuck on the dossiers that have been discussed for months: how much access will fishermen from EU countries have in British waters? And to what extent are the British willing to follow EU rules in exchange for access to the European internal market? Both files are so sensitive that there is still no willingness in both Brussels and London to meet the other.

In injury time

Last week, the negotiations were already in injury time to complete everything before January 1. The deal has yet to be translated into all 23 EU languages, in close consultation with lawyers and attorneys to ensure that the deal means the same legally in every Member State. And because the agreement will at least contain 600 (and probably more) pages, that is still a huge job.

In addition, the European Parliament must also vote on it, something that is now scheduled for the week of December 14. And that also seems to be getting more difficult by the day now that a breakthrough is taking longer and longer to come. A scheduled session of the European Parliament between Christmas and New Year is already being considered. Or even the possibilities to extend ratification beyond 1 January: all very complicated.

Little attention to

Interestingly, there is little attention for Brexit in Great Britain, especially now that this crucial final phase has arrived. The final deal clarifies what the future will look like outside the EU, something that has been fought over for the past 4.5 years. And as the climax approaches, corona is dominating the front pages.

On the one hand, that could be an advantage for Boris Johnson. The less salt on each Brexit snail, the better. Especially now that the moment of truth is just around the corner. Johnson has barely intervened in the public eye in Brexit in recent weeks. He came up with a new ten-point plan for the climate, with a new defense budget, and tomorrow he will announce a new corona roadmap. But Brexit prospects? Johnson hasn’t ventured into that for months.

But on the other hand, he can’t keep running away from a decision. Even Downing Street insiders say that Johnson still hasn’t taken the plunge for himself whether he wants a deal or not. After all, there are huge drawbacks to every choice.

If he opts for an agreement, he will in any case have to make a compromise with the EU. And any compromise will be interpreted by the fanatical Brexit wing in its Conservative party as a bowing down. They will see it as a betrayal and tell Johnson that the deal is ‘not a real Brexit’. Although Johnson has a majority of 80 seats, this group is big enough to make it seriously difficult for him. Certainly also because a large part of this group is very critical of its corona policy; the relationship with his group has already cooled down considerably.

No deal serious option

Going for a no-deal Brexit still remains a serious possibility. Certainly because Johnson will then be released from any Brussels interference. And from an economic point of view, the impact of that scenario is not even that much more severe than when a deal does come. Because the British are only pursuing a relatively thin agreement under Johnson, there is a lot to change anyway on January 1. The British government calculated that a no-deal Brexit in the next ten years will reduce the economy by 8 percent, while this agreement means 5 percent less growth. A small difference in the long run.

However, there are major geopolitical drawbacks to this. A no-deal Brexit will seriously deteriorate relations with the EU. In addition, it will only complicate Johnson’s relationship with incoming President Biden, an outspoken opponent of Brexit. Biden fears the consequences for Northern Ireland in such a scenario, something that is dear to him partly because of his Irish roots.

Without a deal, Johnson will thus become further isolated on the international stage. Just at a time when he is allowed to organize the G7 and the climate summit in 2021. Moments when he would like to show that the British will still play a significant role after Brexit.

It’s a devil’s dilemma. Nevertheless, Johnson will have to choose one of these two options. And fast.

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