“Covid has accelerated the transformation process towards online by at least 5 years, those who had not yet tried to buy online have done so this year” Davide Casaleggio is one of the leading Italian e-commerce experts, Casaleggio Associati da years churns out research on a topic that today more than ever is at the center of the economic debate, but also political, with a movement of ‘resistance’ to online purchases that finds more and more leaders willing to give a voice: “We cannot cling to Luddite positions that they never solve the problem, but they aggravate it, ”says the manager. For Casaleggio “the pandemic has made many Italians aware of the existence of e-commerce”, but the era of the coronavirus is speeding up a process that has already been underway for some time: “Net of the dynamics linked exclusively to the lockdown, for example, I believe there is an acceleration towards digitization in all contexts of our life. It is clear that it is important for companies to invest now to avoid being left behind ”.
Dr. Casaleggio, your research indicates that the world of e-commerce has been expanding in our country for years. What impact do you think Covid has had on this type of purchase?
Those who had not yet tried to buy online did so this year. Online demand in the spring months increased by 30 times in sectors such as food, and operators only managed to increase their service by a maximum of 4 times, leaving plenty of room for new initiatives or for structured operators from abroad. Covid has accelerated the transformation process towards online by at least 5 years. But not all online sectors have benefited from it because demand has collapsed for many products and services such as tourism, in fact the net balance of the entire e-commerce sector could close with a slight negative sign this year. However, as demand picks up, these sectors will also find millions of more digital customers. We have explored many of these aspects in the two studies we published this year on the topic.
Do you believe that the pandemic has simply accelerated an ongoing process or has changed its dynamics? And in the latter case, how?
The pandemic has made many Italians aware of the existence of e-commerce, especially in the over 50 range, and has allowed various services to be strengthened in a few months. 37% of Italians say they want to increase their online spending in the coming months. Net of the dynamics linked exclusively to the lockdown that involve food and masks, for example, I believe an acceleration towards digitization is underway in all contexts of our life. It is clear that it is important for companies to invest now to avoid being left behind.
Is the world that is coming a world in which we will only buy in these ways?
Over the past 20 years we have revolutionized the way we watch movies, exchange photos, listen to music, communicate with others. A few years are enough to get used to thinking that this has always been the case. I believe we will also see a major change in the way we buy goods and services and we will soon get used to it. But anyone who thinks that the network replaces the existing one is wrong, as always completes it and will integrate with all the other channels we have available. However, no manufacturer or retailer may decide not to consider online as part of their offer. And the operators who in recent months have accustomed their customers to buying from home, will hardly be able to go back.
We are faced with examples of “resistance” to online purchases. Mauro Bussoni, secretary of Confesercenti, clearly speaks of suspending the online sale of non-essential products by law. Does this position make sense?
I think it is necessary to think about two aspects.
The first with a customer-centric vision. We cannot think that Italians are depriving themselves of a service that in many cases will be the only one possible for regions in lockdown, and probably the one recommended by the medical world to avoid Christmas gatherings in shops.
The second with the shopkeepers’ vision. Operators who have started using the network have already seen the benefits.
I think it is appropriate for large operators or anyone with a lot of visibility to promote purchases at local stores to help support the economy of their city.
Bussoni also says that we should “safeguard an economic network that is unable to compete”. Is it objectively a problem, and what solutions can there be?
I believe there may be solutions that can reconcile both the needs of customers and merchants.
Intermarché in France has made its online sales platform available to all bookstores in the country free of charge for the Christmas period. In Italy, other operators could take an example, or even Amazon itself.
Furthermore, the sector associations should be the first to propose federated solutions to allow all their members to offer the service online, as has already been done for example for the world of pharmacies or taxis.
What we cannot do is entrench ourselves in Luddite positions which never solve the problem, but aggravate it.
Despite the boost to the sector given by the living conditions of the last year, a recent study by Casaleggio Associati found that 54% of companies have seen their online turnover drop. Is it a problem resulting from the general contraction in consumption or is our country not equipped for this business model?
Unfortunately, most of the so-called Smart Companies still have a foreign passport due to the lack of investment in research and development of the last twenty years in Italy. But I would say that the problem now is largely due to the contraction in consumption in some historically strong sectors in online sales such as tourism, I have no doubt that they will pick up even stronger in the post-pandemic. Today the main problem is to make these companies survive in the pandemic period so that they can still be there when the market starts again.
A part of politics, I am thinking of Matteo Salvini or the Brothers of Italy, has started a campaign with the slogan “Christmas without Amazon”. Echoes of similar positions come from the center-right parties in Europe and beyond. What is the point of such a position?
More than campaigning against a specific service, which I suspect may among other things simply advertise it to those who were not yet thinking about it, I think we should promote the online services of Italian merchants. Digital autarchy is not something we can afford and in fact even on Amazon there are thousands of Italian producers and traders who offer their products.
The lockdown gave impetus to what could be called a proximity e-commerce network: groups of small merchants and retailers who came together by area or by type of business to create an online distribution network. Is it a model that can work or are we still at a level, so to speak, too artisanal?
There are several projects that are emerging. Such as Bookdealer to allow small bookstores to sell online, or OriginalItalia for wine producers. However, I believe that the initiatives must come from sector associations or large groups of entrepreneurs to give solidity and ample breadth right away. For example, the Campagna Amica project by Coldiretti has brought online the stalls of the Italian farmers’ markets online with hundreds of thousands of deliveries per month.
There is a concern that can perhaps be summarized as follows: in the medium-long term can the little ones withstand the impact of giants like Amazon or are they at risk of being overwhelmed?
There is a named stock index “Death By Amazon” which testifies to Amazon’s ability to take entire markets and the competitors mentioned do not have the defect of being small, but of not having understood the digital transformation.
In a world, which also due to the pandemic, will be increasingly digital, one cannot think of competing without having the opportunity to make investments. I am convinced that every small business can create its own story, offering customers unique or excellent products or creating a valuable relationship with their customers. And this is already happening now. But if we look at the whole market instead, the risk is that without a strong change of direction the digital giants will take over the whole market, it is necessary that among these giants there are also Italian, or at least European, operators.
The debate on the web tax is known, but more generally do you think that there is a problem of unfair competition with regard to large portals that do not have taxation in the countries where they operate or, if there is, is it minimal?
I’ve always been skeptical of coming up with names for innovation-related taxes. Specifically, I believe that what is an irreversible economic revolution is often confused with what is purely a theme of fiscal competition between countries. If Ireland and Luxembourg do fiscal dumping, I believe it should not be accepted by the rest of the European Community even at the cost of resorting to duties in the event of a non-agreement.
What future is there for those who do not adapt?
The road of companies that have decided not to innovate is also paved with famous names that have gone bankrupt like Kodak, Blockbuster. It is almost never a reason for possibility, but for will and vision. Unfortunately in this period the economic crisis will be very selective and will also impact on those with the will to innovate.
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