Was it actually surprising that the European leaders were unable to agree?
‘It was already clear in advance that this EU video summit would not produce anything on this point. Chancellor Merkel, who has been the EU president for this six months, President Michel and Commission President von der Leyen had a clear strategy. They wanted to keep the discussion under control and not let it derail.
The views were also known. A group of three countries (Poland, Hungary and Slovenia) are threatening to block the enormous European money pot (more than 1,800 billion euros), because the multi-billion support is linked to compliance with the rule of law.
‘Opposite them are the 24 other member states and the European Parliament that are in favor of that link, both for the recovery fund (750 billion) and the multi-year budget (1100 billion). However, such a video summit is not the platform to solve such a difficult problem. After all, this is about European values: freedom of the press and enforcement of the rule of law. If those three countries already want to compromise, then certainly not in front of everyone. You have to discuss this behind closed doors. ‘
How should things proceed now?
‘Germany is now going to see what is possible with these three. Poland, Hungary and Slovenia believe that connecting the billions of recovery with the rule of law will lead to discrimination. But what do they possibly want to change? The problem is that for the other member states this rule of law test is the minimum, as Prime Minister Rutte put it in the House.
One option is that there will be some sort of ‘explanatory statement’, a piece that reassures the three troublemakers that the rule of law test is not against them and will not change anything else. This is the optimistic scenario. In the past, such a statement has often been used to solve problems. If the three countries do not agree with this, keep their heels in the sand, then there is a big problem.
‘Then there will be no recovery fund on January 1 and the EU will have to fall back on a basic budget of about 30 percent of what would be spent. In this second scenario, the three opposing countries are also hit hard. Poland alone will receive around 130 billion euros from the fund in the coming years. The other 24 member states can use this to play the three off against each other and to isolate the leader of the resistance, the Hungarian Prime Minister Orbán. ‘
There is also a third scenario: the nuclear option. What does it mean?
Rutte mentioned this as a solution. Then you make the one-off recovery fund into a fund for only the 24 countries that do accept the rule of law test. Poland, Hungary and Slovenia do not participate: they do not pay for it, but they also receive nothing. However, this does not solve the problem of the European budget: it is simply for all Member States. There will be no new budget without the consent of those three countries. Time is running out. This problem should be solved by mid-December, when the European Parliament meets for the last time. ‘
Isn’t the rest of the EU tired of these three troublemakers?
‘Yes, they have had it completely, especially with Hungary and Poland. They are concerned not only about the independence of the judiciary in these countries, but also about freedom of the press, admission to universities, equal treatment for men and women, gays and heterosexuals. Hungary and Poland have been trying for months to block all texts in which the words’gender equality‘ appearance. They are at odds with the new migration plans, the climate goals. That irritates and the aversion increases. ‘
What can Member States do against these countries?
The only option is an Article 7 procedure. This does not expel them from the EU, but deprives them of their right to vote. You actually suspend them. Such proceedings have already been started against Poland and Hungary. The problem is that such a decision has to be taken unanimously. So one will protect the other. So this is a dead end. ‘
Has the EU not created unnecessary problems by introducing this test on maintaining the rule of law?
‘This is new, this is virgin territory. It was a great wish of almost all countries. For years they have been grinding their teeth as the rule of law is undermined in some Member States. This is about principles. The EU says to all dictators in the world who flout the rules: you shouldn’t do this. And then you do not take action against your own member states, countries that receive billions of EU money. That is difficult to explain. ‘
How does this fight end?
‘To be honest, I don’t know. There may be a nice explanation, the easy solution. The three countries can then use them for the home audience. Like, “We won.” I see little room for concessions in the 24 other countries. The negotiations in the coming weeks will be exciting, no agreement is a possible outcome. For the time being there will be no recovery fund, no EU budget, no money to make plans. In January, something new will have to be carefully tried again. ‘
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