The EU is used to coming out of one crisis and then falling into another one, but this time it is not an “as usual” crisis, because it disintegrates carefully and with great difficulty, the negotiated project to combat the coronavirus, which may be the last rescue for the economies of many countries . And the EU’s new multi-annual budget in the package collapses.
EU leaders will be discussing it next Thursday at an extraordinary videoconference, but there is little chance that anything will change.
“Everyone knows this is a complete stalemate,” one senior official told POLITICO. – We are at a crossroads and nobody knows where this leads. We will continue our consultations, but if nothing changes, we will be in a deep mountain….
Let’s take a look at what led the Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and Deputy Prime Minister Jarosław Kaczyński to cause such panic in Brussels.
We check what this “mechanism” is about
Adopted by a 25-2 majority, the “dependency mechanism” is a 15-page document called the “General Conditionality System for the Protection of the Union’s Budget”. It is so: “budget protection”.
The text states that the proposed mechanism is to “protect the Union’s budget against violations of the rule of law affecting sound financial management or the protection of the Union’s financial interests”.
The rest of the article is below the video:
And further: “Breaches of the rule of law, which affect in particular the proper functioning of public authorities and effective judicial review, may seriously harm the financial interests of the Union.”
And finally: “Appropriate measures [czyli wstrzymanie wypłat – red.] shall be undertaken when it is found that a breach of the rule of law in a Member State affects the financial management of the EU budget or the protection of the Union’s financial interests in a sufficiently direct manner or creates a serious risk of breach of these principles. “
I apologize for lengthy quotes, but it follows from the above that our government has raised so much noise in a case that has little chance of stopping the flow of EU money to Poland at any time.
In the published in September report of the European Commission on the state of the rule of law in the EU countries, Poland, almost 20 pages were devoted, on which were written complaints about the reform of the judiciary, the attitude of the authorities towards the media and the fight against official corruption. Not a word about the abuses in the distribution of EU funds.
In general, Warsaw is treated in Brussels as an honest and scrupulous recipient of money from the EU budget – so there are little concerns that this side might close the tap with money. At most, Hungary may fear here, and most of all Bulgaria, which paradoxically voted for the mechanism.
This weakening of the rule of law mechanism is due to the German presidency of the EU. Berlin had to face the demands of the main factions in the European Parliament and several member states that Poland could be punished directly for its judicial reforms, for which a disciplinary procedure under Art. 7 of the EU Treaty and for which we have already received several judgments of the Court of Justice of the EU.
The mechanism had to exist, otherwise Parliament and the European Council would not have adopted the budget. But in the form in which it appeared, it is only a symbolic – as is usually the case with EU compromises – a scarecrow towards the policy of the Law and Justice government.
Finally free
In the form in which it was adopted, this “ominous” mechanism that makes Poland addictive simply does not threaten Poland in any way. And even if someone found an excuse to launch it against Warsaw, the procedure would still take years.
It follows from the above that this entire regulation has a purely symbolic meaning from the Polish point of view. This symbol, however, strikes at the very foundations of the plan to rebuild the legal system in Poland, implemented by PiS.
Only that by opposing this symbol, Poland resorted to a specific one in Brussels Finally free.
How did she do it? Well, the ambassadors of Poland and Hungary blocked a procedural step towards finalizing the so-called the Own Resources Decision, which was a precondition for the block to contract a new € 750 billion reconstruction fund.
Both countries also signaled that they are suspending political support for the community’s seven-year budget of € 1.074 trillion, due to enter into force on 1 January.
The dominant comment in Brussels is this: the budgetary and recovery package foresees tens of billions of euros for Hungary and Poland, and by vetoing Budapest and Warsaw, they mainly harm their own citizens.
What is this veto threatening Poland?
Both countries have long threatened a veto, but in Brussels there was hope that as the pandemic worsened, their determination would weaken.
– This is not the end yet, we are entering the political phase – one of the diplomats told POLITICO. Either the cases are resolved or we find alternative solutions elsewhere.
Regarding the Reconstruction Fund, Brussels says the debt that supports it could be agreed outside the EU budget as an “intergovernmental agreement” between participating countries. Such an option was considered in the spring and dismissed as too complicated and time-consuming – but not impossible.
This means that it may turn out that Poland and Hungary will watch from a distance as the other 25 EU members jointly take out a huge and long-term loan on the financial markets to jointly create a coronafund.
On the other hand, the veto on the budget will probably result in a provisional application, i.e. both the current contributions of member states and the streams of EU funds will remain unchanged. However, those that require the conclusion of new contracts will suffer as there will be no legal basis for their conclusion.
The current long-term budget is more favorable for Poland than the recently vetoed new Multiannual Financial Framework for 2021-2024. For example, it will decrease by 5 percent. huge fund for subsidies to farmers.
It is hard to believe, but this was probably the calculation that guided the representatives of Solidarna Polska Zbigniew Ziobro, who recently argued that the overthrow of the new EU budget could actually be beneficial for the country.
How Kamil Dziubka from Onet writes, Ziobro fights for power by blackmailing a veto in Brussels. Both Kaczyński and Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki succumb to him.
So the Union was pushed into an unprecedented crisis, and Poland was exposed to the loss of billions of euros of necessary support for the economy, just to settle some internal affairs of the ruling coalition? And in addition, an imaginary threat to the country’s sovereignty was used for this purpose?
I used the fragments text by David M. Herszenhorn and Lili Bayer on the POLITICO.eu website
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