All lights were green for Joe Biden : the pretender to the White House, given at the head of eight points, had to pulverize Donald Trump, and the Democrats increase their majority in the House, even recapture the Senate lost in 2012.
That was before elections of which we only know the loser: “It’s a disaster for the polling industry” , pings David Graham in The Atlantic. And maybe a real disaster for Americans
, he believes, as the discredit of the twenty or so institutes risks depriving the country of precious tools to guide the choices, those of citizens, governments, businesses …
2016 error
Experts who shuffle their data, such as political scientist Charlie Cook or statistician Nate Silver, had called to be wary of national polls and rather to trust those carried out at the state level, where the election is played out. And even more to consider only the survey averages
.
The pollsters, on the other hand, were supposed to have rectified their mistake of 2016, when they had not seen coming the switch of depressed industrial states in favor of Trump. Their new models had to take better account of the non-graduated whites ”, then passed under their radar.
Quiet Trump supporters
This time, therefore, Biden had to win Florida (he is beaten there) and win by five points in Pennsylvania, eight points in Michigan and Wisconsin… where the outcome will be played again with a few handfuls of votes.
Still planted, the pollsters? Perhaps mostly helpless. This new fiasco resuscitates what had come to pass for a myth: the shy Trump voters
, these “timid” (discreet) – or ashamed or defiant? – supporters of the populist who do not answer questions, but do vote.
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