Eurocontrol considers a recovery in 2026 the most obvious. In this scenario, a corona vaccine will not become widely available until mid-2022. That would mean that air traffic in 2024 will be 92 percent of the 2019 level. A full recovery follows two years later.
Eurocontrol’s most positive scenario assumes that the vaccine will be available as early as the summer of 2021 and that the pandemic will soon end. In that case, it will take until 2024 before air traffic reaches the pre-corona level of 2019, as previously expected.
According to the third, most pessimistic scenario, no effective corona vaccine will become available at all. In that case, the pandemic will remain dormant and passenger confidence will remain low. In 2024, a recovery of only 75 percent is then possible, a full recovery will not take place before 2029.
Real prospect
According to Eurocontrol boss Eamonn Brennan, there is a very realistic prospect that the recovery will not take place until after 2024, perhaps even nine years from now. “This is a catastrophic picture for the aviation industry and shows clearly why it is so important for states to take consistent and coherent action to support the aviation industry and make passengers feel safe to fly again. “
The forecast shows, according to Eurocontrol, that the evolution of the aviation sector is highly dependent on how quickly an effective vaccine becomes widely available and the public’s confidence returns.
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