The Democratic dream of Joe Biden’s decisive victory on election night has faded, with everything depending on four swing states, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin – which are counting postal votes, most of them Democrats, show the polls – and Georgia, which leans towards Republicans, but Atlanta, an overwhelmingly democratic city, is still missing. The confrontation between Biden and Donald Trump entered unknown terrain, becoming a trench war. Armies of Republican and Democratic lawyers, who were preparing for this scenario long before the elections, are advancing on the courts, after the President promises to do everything to stop the count.
“We were preparing to win these elections. Frankly, we won the elections, ”declared Trump, before a crowd of elated supporters, at the end of the night. “This is a huge fraud for our nation,” he accused, without presenting any evidence of it. “We are going to the Supreme Court, we want the whole voting to stop”.
The President’s strategy is nothing new. It has been calling into question the validity of postal voting for months, suggesting a judicial challenge of this kind. Trump went on to publicly justify that the appointment of conservative Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court would serve for the judge to decide the election.
“Once again, the President is lying to the American people and acting like a would-be despot,” tweeted Democrat Adam Schiff, leader of the Congressional secretarial commission. “We are going to count each vote. And ignore the noise ”.
Chaotic scenarios To reach the much-desired 270 electoral college votes needed for re-election, Trump may lose either in Michigan or Wisconsin, but never in Georgia or Pennsylvania. “But Republicans don’t even have to win; all they have to do is draw, ”he wrote to the New Yorker. “If the vote is not certified by December 8, states whose legislative power is controlled by Republicans can nominate voters, who are likely to vote for Trump.” This is the case for all swing states still in play.
For those who watched the Florida dispute between Georgia W. Bush and Al Gore, in the 2000 elections, the feeling is déjà vu. With the entire election depending on the state, which was on the razor’s edge between the two, what remained in memory were successive counts and recounts, which were stopped by the Supreme Court, leaving Bush with a mere 530 votes more than Al Gore. What few remember is that, before the Supreme Court decision, the state governor, Jeb Bush – George’s brother – was already preparing to nominate Republican voters to the electoral college, as can happen now, on a much larger scale.
“Let me explain to you how the electoral college works, add some nuance,” J. Edwin Benton, professor of political science at the University of South Florida, told i last week. “Who are these voters? Long before the elections, in each state, the Republican party and the Democrats nominated a number of people, who if their candidate won the state would vote ”.
“There are two sets of voters, one of which is activated when your state certifies a candidate as the winner of the election,” said Benton. “But if the state fails to certify the election, those votes are not cast. They have about a month to get it right, ”he warned. “I can see Donald Trump trying to tie the vote count in court, with lawsuits, to the point that voters in states that support him can vote, but the others can’t.”
There is another possibility that can cause even greater chaos. The state congress in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin is controlled by Republicans, but its governors are Democrats. We may have both powers to certify their voters, ending up with twice the votes, the so-called “dueling voters”, warned Reuters – something that only happened twice in history, in the 1876 and 1960 elections.
“The scary thing is that any case would go quickly to the Supreme Court. And he has that safe vote, if the judges put aside their scruples and integrity ”, lamented Benton, who remembers the 2000 dispute well.
That electoral night, the professor had participated in a radio program, until dawn. “I got home, took a shower, went to teach. The students asked me: ‘This is going to the Supreme Court, who will win?’. Without blinking he said: ‘The Bush’. They asked me why I said that and I said, ‘Tell us!’ Five of the judges were nominated by Republicans, four by Democrats. The result followed party lines. And Donald Trump does not forget that, ”he warned. “The court is supposed to be neutral, objective. But, under the robes, the judges wear red or blue ”.
The path to confusion After all, how did we get here? A few days ago, it looked like Joe Biden had everything he needed for a decisive victory on election night. He was ahead in national polls, well positioned in crucial states and had received a wealth of funding, which allowed him to flood the swing states with advertisements.
Like Hillary Clinton in 2016, perhaps Biden has sinned from overconfidence. It was enough for Trump to lose in Florida, or in a handful of smaller swing states, to end his chances of reelection. Instead of focusing on just a few key states, Biden went on the offensive, betting resources on turning Republican bastions like Ohio, North Carolina, even Texas – it didn’t help him, he ended up losing them all, by a margin too small. He only managed to turn Arizona, a weak consolation prize. You may still be able to turn Georgia around if you can navigate the legal battles ahead.
As soon as the results from Florida arrived, it was clear that it would be a long and tumultuous election week. Democrats counted on having the significant Latin vote of this state guaranteed, but polls show much less support from this community for Biden than that received by Clinton in 2016.
The Democratic candidate’s successive attempts to win over the Latin community seem to have had no effect. Perhaps the most publicized of these attempts – because it was widely ridiculed on social media – was when Biden, during a rally for the Puerto Rican community in Florida, pulled out his cell phone to put on the song “Despacito”. Nor does the focus of Democrats in this state, which has spent more than $ 110 million on ads since May, appear to have had the desired effect.
Trump’s message that Biden is a Trojan horse on the left wing of the Democrats, supposedly dangerous communists, adapted perfectly to the fears of the significant Cuban and Venezuelan communities in Florida, known for their conservatism, very critical of leftist regimes. in their home countries.
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