As national attention focuses on the electoral contest between former Vice President Joe Biden and President Donald Trump, in New York state the electorate will decide whether the Legislature is renewed with new political figures, many of them young women with Hispanic roots.
Statewide, more than 2.2 million residents cast their ballot early as of Saturday, according to the New York State Board of Elections, or about 17% of registered voters. On top of that, more than 1 million voters have returned absentee ballots.
New York’s overall turnout was projected to exceed two-thirds of the 12 million registered voters.
This is how voters will choose the 150 seats in the Assembly and the 63 seats in the Senate in Albany, where the majority of incumbents are seeking reelection.
But what makes these elections interesting is the fact that more than twenty contests are open, because the incumbents decided not to be reelected, in addition to the fact that some candidates are competing without an opponent.
The departure of 12 figures from the Senate stands out – which is equivalent to 19% of the legislative body -, 10 of them Republicans, such as Kenneth LaValle, from District 1, John J. Flanagan, from District 2, Betty Little, from District 45 and George Amedore of District 46, among others, will offer new blood an unprecedented political opportunity. The Democratic Party hopes to increase its majority in the state Senate thereby, further paving the way for the passage of more progressive bills.
In addition, young women of Hispanic origin seem to take the reins in search of a seat in the Amables with figures like Jessica González Rojas, daughter of immigrants, who hopes to make history in the 34th District of Queens, as well as Amanda Séptimo, of Dominican origin. , who is vying for the Bronx District 84 seat.
In New York City, the arrival of new figures in the City Council is also expected. Democrat Darma Díaz hopes to win the seat for Brooklyn’s 37th District, which was vacated by Councilmember Rafael Espinal.
Women have largely exercised the right to vote throughout history, as the gender gap in party affiliation continues to widen.
Harvard political scientist Pippa Norris, author of the essay Cultural backlash: Trump, brexit and authoritarian populism (Cultural reaction: Trump, Brexit and authoritarian populism), in collaboration with Ronald Inglehart, a political scientist at the University of Michigan, points out that if women go to the polls in slightly higher proportions than men in pendulum states such as Michigan, Florida, Pennsylvania and North Carolina, President Donald Trump will lose the election.
In 2016, according to an analysis of Pew Research Center, 63% of women who were eligible to vote said they would vote in presidential elections, compared to 59% of men. A gender gap of 4 percentage points similar to the 4-point gaps in 2012 and 2008, as well as the 3-point gaps in 2004, 2000 and 1996.
Trump received 41% of the votes from American women overall, while 54% of women voted for Hillary Clinton, according to data from an exit poll conducted by Edison Research in 2016.
Trump, however, got 52% of the votes from white women. By then he won 52% of the votes of American men overall and 62% of the votes of white men, exit poll data suggests.
Pew notes that voter turnout has varied significantly by race and ethnicity, yet within each of these groups, gender gaps persist.
That gap leads analysts to suggest that this election could end up as a duel between middle-aged white men, who make up a significant bloc of Trump supporters, and young women of different ethnic origins, more prone to the progressive and inspired stream. in figures like New York Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.
In 2016, Hispanic women outnumbered Hispanic men by approximately 5 points (50% vs. 45%). However, the gender gap among Hispanic voters has not been consistent, says Pew.
Additionally, voter turnout also varies by educational level. In general, voters with more education are more likely to vote compared to those with less education.
Hispanic voters who do not have a college degree are among the least likely to vote. Hispanic women without a college degree were more likely to vote in 2016 (46% vs. 40%) than men with similar levels of education. This gap has been growing over time. Among the more educated Hispanic voters, there has been a much smaller gender participation gap in recent years. In 2016, Hispanic men with a college education were more likely to vote than Hispanic women with a college degree (70% vs. 67%).
The Pew analysis also found that partisan preferences differ widely by gender. In 2018 and 2019, the Democratic Party had a wide advantage with women: 56% of registered voters identified as Democrats or leaned towards the Democratic Party, while 38% identified as Republican or leaned towards the Republican Party . This is in contrast to men, of whom 50% were Republicans or GOP supporters and 42% identified with or favored Democrats. And that gender gap has been widening since 2014.
Among Hispanic voters, the majority of women and men identify as Democrats, but this is especially the case among Hispanic women (67% identified as Democrats vs. 58% of Hispanic men in 2018 and 2019).
– .
