The transitional period for the UK’s withdrawal from the European Union is almost over, but with about two months to go before the deadline, there is still no deal in sight. Negotiations between London and Brussels continue and there are three possible outcomes, according to Reuters.
On the one hand, it is possible that the two parts of the equation will still reach agreement this year, even if it is a less significant partnership than was initially envisaged. On the other hand, there may be no agreement at all. Finally, there is the possibility of some kind of commitment with room for changes.
1 – Agreement… but little
If an agreement is reached before 31 December, the United Kingdom and the European Union will face more than a thousand pages of international treaties to ensure that all areas are covered – from fishing (one of the most conflicting topics) to medicines or automotive components.
According to Reuters, however, even if a joint document is signed without additional taxes, just as if Brexit did not exist, there will be little room for integration in terms of services and regulators. Foreign policy, international security and defense would also be areas without much support.
At the moment, it still seems to be the best option available. Although not as comprehensive as might be expected, it would allow the two markets to cooperate economically;
2 – “No deal”
If the British government decides that a weak agreement does not serve the interests of the United Kingdom, it may decide to follow a path where there is no agreement at all. If this happens, the rules of the World Trade Organization will come into effect, which means that there are no special conditions or any type of benefit for the United Kingdom and vice versa.
Despite constantly repeating that he wants an agreement, Prime Minister Boris Johnson has also made it clear that he does not mind moving ahead with so-called “Australian terms”. At present, the EU does not have a free trade agreement with Australia and it is in the same category that the United Kingdom could fall into place – according to Reuters, at the level of China, but worse than Afghanistan or Afghanistan. Mali, both developing countries;
3 – Not carne, not peixe
The third option presented by the news agency is in the middle of the other two. Pressure from companies could lead the United Kingdom and the European Union to establish a kind of partial commitment in only a few areas, and at the last possible moment. The hasty deal should cover important areas where both sides can, in fact, agree, leaving out everything else.
It may also be a temporary commitment in order to give an immediate answer to more pressing issues and avoid a free fall of economies. Reuters reiterates that this option would offer Boris Johnson a political victory, since he would have a deal without giving up.
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