Conflicting Crowd Estimates Emerge from Pro-Duterte Rallies

A series of rallies celebrating the 80th birthday of former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte drew significant crowds in the Davao Region on March 28, 2025, but conflicting estimates of attendance have surfaced. While the Philippine National Police (PNP) initially reported approximately 60,000 participants nationwide, the Police Regional Office XI (PRO-XI) asserts that 96,100 individuals joined the rallies in the Davao region alone [[3]].

Major Catherine dela Rey, spokesperson for PRO-XI, clarified that the 60,000 figure represented the peak crowd in Davao City during the “Rody at 80: Global Festivity of His Life and Legacy” event. Though, she emphasized that the “overall crowd” across the entire Davao region, encompassing Davao de Oro, Davao del Norte, Davao del Sur, Davao Oriental, Davao Occidental, and Davao City, reached 96,100 [[3]].

Brigadier General Jean Fajardo, spokesperson for the PNP, stated that only 60,000 supporters attended the pro-Duterte rallies in 200 areas nationwide. Dela Rey responded, “I don’t know exactly where [Fajardo] got the data. Perhaps the data she got is from an early reporting, but I can’t comment on that” [[3]]. She further asserted, “But what we reported was 96,100 participated in Davao Region rallies supporting Duterte in 27 different cities and municipalities spread across the region” [[3]].

Dela Rey explained that the figures were rough estimates based on reports from police officers deployed to the rallies. For example, she noted that the Duterte prayer rally in Bansalan, Davao del Sur, drew approximately 7,000 attendees, while Tagum saw a crowd of 6,000 [[3]].

Local Davao media outlets reported even larger crowds in Davao City, estimating the attendance at over 300,000. SunStar placed the number at 330,000, citing the use of the MapChecking tool, while Edge Davao reported that “around 350,000 Duterte supporters swarmed the C.M. Recto Avenue and Roxas Avenue” [[2]].

Dela Rey defended the accuracy of PRO-XI’s reports, asserting that they were not “fake news.”

Rallies Cause Traffic Congestion Amidst Duterte’s ICC Trial

The prayer rally for former President Duterte,who served as mayor of Davao City for a total of 22 years,led to significant traffic disruptions in the downtown area. Roxas Avenue, C.M. recto Avenue, and a portion of J.P. Laurel avenue were closed to vehicular traffic to accommodate the event [[2]].

The stage for the rally was erected at the intersection of C.M. Recto and Roxas avenues,a central location in Davao City.

These rallies occur as Duterte faces trial at the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague, Netherlands, on charges of “crime against humanity of murder” related to his controversial “war on drugs” during his time as mayor and president [[1]].

The situation is further elaborate by Duterte’s decision to run for mayor of Davao City in the 2025 elections. He faces a challenge from Karlo Nograles, former Civil Service Commission chair and son of Duterte’s past political rival, the late Prospero “Boy” Nograles.

Duterte’s extensive political career includes serving as mayor of Davao City from 1988 to 1998, 2001 to 2010, and 2013 to 2016, followed by his presidency from 2016 to 2022.

Analysis: Political Implications and Echoes of populism

The massive turnout for duterte’s birthday rallies,irrespective of the exact figures,underscores his enduring popularity in the Davao Region and among certain segments of the Philippine population. This support persists despite the serious allegations against him at the ICC, highlighting a complex dynamic between loyalty, regionalism, and perceptions of justice.

For U.S.readers, this situation might resonate with the enduring appeal of figures like Donald Trump, who also maintains a strong base of support despite facing numerous controversies and legal challenges. Both cases illustrate the power of populism and the ability of certain leaders to connect with voters on an emotional level,even in the face of significant criticism.

The conflicting crowd estimates also raise questions about the reliability of official data and the potential for political manipulation. In the U.S.,similar debates often arise regarding attendance figures at political rallies and demonstrations,underscoring the importance of critical media literacy and independent verification.

Duterte’s decision to run for mayor again can be interpreted as an attempt to maintain political influence and potentially shield himself from further legal scrutiny. This mirrors instances in U.S. politics where former presidents or high-ranking officials have sought to remain relevant through various means, including running for lower office or engaging in public advocacy.

Recent Developments and Practical Applications

The ICC trial against Duterte is ongoing, and its outcome remains uncertain. The proceedings are being closely watched by human rights organizations and international legal experts, as they could set a precedent for holding leaders accountable for alleged crimes against humanity.

From a practical standpoint, the events in the Philippines highlight the importance of:

• Independent media: Ensuring access to diverse and reliable sources of information is crucial for informed decision-making.
• Rule of law: Upholding the principles of justice and accountability is essential for maintaining a stable and democratic society.
• Civic engagement: Encouraging active participation in political processes can help ensure that governments are responsive to the needs of their citizens.

The situation also serves as a reminder of the complexities of international relations and the challenges of balancing national sovereignty with the pursuit of justice.