Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia – World gold prices in the spot and gold market Antam in trading last Tuesday (07/21/2020) posted a new record driven by a surge in infection Covid-19 and hopes for further stimulus from a number of world central banks, thereby supporting the demand for gold as a metal safe haven.
World gold prices in the spot market at the close of trading Monday (Tuesday morning Indonesian time) rose by US $ 6.5 or 0.36% to as low as US $ 1,815.4 / troy ounce from US $ 1,808.9 / troy ounce on Monday, launch from Refinitiv.
The price of gold also jumped 1.78% to US $ 1,841.01 / troy ounce last night, before it was trimmed and was at the level of US $ 1,837.30 / troy ounce or rose 1.57% at 19:50 WIB Tuesday night (7/21/) in the spot market, launch data Refinitiv.
Yesterday’s closing price marked the all-time highest level of US $ 1,920 / troy ounce achieved in September 2011.
Launch Kitco News, Hans Albrecht, Horizons portfolio manager ETF, even saying that monetary stimulus policies through the asset purchase program (quantitative easing / QE) are said to be a trigger for the strengthening of the stock market, but on the other hand these policies pose a risk of rising inflation and decreasing currency values. The last two mentioned things triggered investors to hunt for gold.
Albrecht predicts that the price of gold will reach US $ 2,000 / troy ounce by the end of this year. This means that gold will print a new history, shot off an all-time record high of US $ 1,920 / troy ounce which was achieved in September 2011.
“In my view, the price of gold has a great opportunity towards US $ 2,000 / troy ounce at the end of the year, and next year will be much higher,” Albrecht said. Kitco News.
In the analyst, seen from the monthly chart it is mentioned that if gold is able to penetrate US $ 1,800 / troy ounce, then the chances of reaching record highs will be even greater.
Gold is now above that level, with a record not falling further below US $ 1,800 / troy ounce, it’s just a matter of time when this precious metal will reach record highs.
While for short term or short term, the target is an increase to US $ 1,846 / troy ounce after successfully crossing the Rectangle pattern.
As for the price of gold Antam on this day it increased by Rp. 7,000 to Rp. 905,120 / gram. Antam’s gold price strengthening yesterday also approached the record throughout 2020 which was achieved on 7 April 2020 when it was at the level of Rp 914,000 / gram. However, this is the new highest price since April 13, 2020 when it is at Rp. 903,000 / gram.
Gold has shone in the last few weeks even throughout this year. The increase in gold prices was triggered by the risk of global economic uncertainty caused pandemic corona virus (Covid-19) originating from the City Wuhan, Province Hubei, China spreading throughout the country.
When economic activity is disrupted it leads to a recession, which is economic growth contracted in two consecutive quarters, making investors seek protection to safe assets or safe haven.
Gold investment is considered a hedge (hedging) when economic uncertainty results pandemic Corona virus, shows that this one instrument is the most sought-after safe haven asset when the economic situation is on the brink of recession.
Then what about market participants or investors who want to buy gold at the current level?
See the technical analysis below.
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Foto: Revinitif Gold of the World- – |
Technical Analysis
Gold price movements using the Daily period (Dailly) from the indicator Boillinger Band (BB) through the area of the upper limit (resistance) and lower limit (support).
Currently, gold is in the area resistance, with the BB line widening, then the next movement tends to continue to rise further in the medium term.
To continue rising, it is necessary to pass the next resistance level in the area of US $ 1,827 / oz to the area of US $ 1,850 / oz.
Meanwhile, to change the bias to bearish need to pass the support level which is in the area of US $ 1,800 / oz to the area of US $ 1,750 / oz.
Meanwhile, the Moving Average indicator Converge Divergent (MACD) which uses the average movement to determine momentum, with the MA line trying to intersect downward from positive territory, then the possibility of gold movement could be corrected. The hologram rod is already in negative territory.
Indikator Relative Strength Index (RSI) as a momentum indicator that compares the magnitude of recent increases and decreases in price over a period of time and serves to detect overbought conditions above 70-80 levels and oversold levels below 30-20.
Currently RSI located in area 67, with the line moving up, the gold is likely to strengthen further. However, RSI that is approaching the overbought area then the increase will be limited or it can be consolidated in the short term.
Overall, through a technical approach with BB indicators that are in the resistance area with lines widening, then the next movement tends to strengthen.
But the reinforcement will be limited which is confirmed with MACD who tried to intersect down and also RSI approaching the overbought area.
Meanwhile, for the short term the price of gold has the potential to consolidate or be corrected to form a new footing. However, for the long term as long as the price of gold is not under the area of US $ 1,750 and does not penetrate the level of US $ 1,675 which indicates a change in the trend of gold will continue to move up.
Gold level needs to pass one of the resistance or support levels, to see the next direction of movement.
Current recommendations, for the short term that tend to be corrected or consolidated, it is necessary to hold or hold purchase to find a new footing at the level of US $ 1,750 to US $ 1,800.
While for the long term, if you buy at the current price of around US $ 1,815 there is a risk of loss of around US $ 15 to touch the key level in the area of US $ 1,800 or equivalent to Rp. 22,500,000 (assuming a rupiah exchange rate of Rp. 15,000 / US $).
As information in trade online trading forex 1 US $ gold is equivalent to US $ 100 or 1 pips equivalent to US $ 10. If there is a profit loss of US $ 15 then it is equal to 1,500 pips. For example, US $ 1,815.00 minus US $ 1,800.00 equals 1,500 pips or US $ 15.
However, the benefits for the long term outweigh the risk of loss. For example, buying at a price of US $ 1,815 liquidation at a price of resistance of US $ 1,850 or US $ 1,900, then the profit can be around US $ 35 – US $ 85 or equivalent to Rp 52,500,000.
Referring to the rules in the market, one troy ounce is equivalent to 31.1 grams, so the amount of US $ 1,900 / troy ounce is converted by dividing the number by 31.1 grams, the result is US $ 61.09 per gram.
Assuming a rupiah exchange rate of Rp. 15,000 / US $, then the price of gold Antam is at Rp. 916,350 / gram. However, it should be noted that this price does not include print production produced by PT Aneka Tambang Tbk (Antam) and other factors.
RESEARCH TEAM CNBC INDONESIA
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