9 Times Correct, This Expert Predicts the Winner of the 2024 US Presidential Election

Jakarta, CNN Indonesia —

Political scientist and presidential historian who correctly predicted the winner of the presidential election nine times United States reveals his predictions regarding the winner of the 2024 US presidential election.

Alan Lichtman, a historian who only once predicted the winner of the 2000 presidential election, said that the contest this time would likely be won by the Democratic presidential candidate, Kamala Harris.

“Harris will be the new president [Amerika Serikat] who paved the way, the first female president, and the first president of mixed African and Asian descent,” said Lichtman in an interview with NDTV.

In an interview with CNN, Lichtman explained that there were 13 main points on which he based his predictions.

The thirteen points include party mandate, competition, office, third parties, short-term economics, long-term economics, policy changes, social unrest, scandals, military/foreign policy failures, military/foreign policy successes , current charisma, and opponent charisma. .

Lichtman did not issue polls in this assessment. According to him, the results of the survey cannot be trusted because people tend to be dynamic.

“Why do I believe Harris will win? Because her polls are thin and my system is ignoring the polls,” said Lichtman.

“[Jajak pendapat tak bisa dipercaya karena orang bisa] lie, change your mind, and [parapenyelenggarasurveiharusmenebaksiapasajakemungkinanpemilihnya”lanjutnya

Meski telah memprediksi demikian, Lichtman mengamini bahwa perkiraannya juga bisa salah. Dia berujar jika prediksinya keliru, maka demokrasi AS benar-benar dalam bahaya.

“Jika saya salah, maka demokrasi kita akan berada dalam bahaya yang sangat serius. Demokrasi itu berharga. Tapi demokrasi dapat dihancurkan dan hampir selalu dihancurkan dari dalam. Dan sayangnya, tren abad ini adalah kemunduran demokrasi di seluruh dunia, dan saya khawatir mengenai negara kita,” ucap dia.

Amerika Serikat akan menggelar pemilihan presiden pada 5 November ini. Kontestasi ini diikuti oleh Wakil Presiden Kamala Harris dari Partai Demokrat dan mantan Presiden Donald Trump dari Partai Republik.

Sejumlah jajak pendapat terbaru menunjukkan bahwa ada persaingan ketat antara Harris dan Trump.

Lebih dari itu, di negara-negara bagian yang menjadi ‘medan pertempuran’, elektabilitas Harris dan Trump masih sulit diprediksi, meski saat ini Trump cenderung ‘menguasai’ negara-negara bagian tersebut.

(blq/bac)

[Gambas:Video CNN]