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For the first time since the middle of the last decade, the Social Democrats are leading the elections in Germany, and the Christian Democrats, with a heavy loss, are not the first political force. The Greens follow them with a lower result than expected, the far right and left suffer losses.
This is shown by the first exit poll data for ZDF TV after the closing of the polling stations. German journalists warn that their results may not accurately reflect the vote, because a record number of people have sent the ballot in the mail.
For now, however, the results show a contested race in which tensions will not drop before the official countdown is over.
Who will be the chancellor
they think The German Social Democratic Party takes 26% of the vote, The Christian Democratic Union – 24 percent. The greens take only 14.5 (below the expected 16-17%). For The Free Democratic Party voted 12 percent, 10 percent in favor “Alternative for Germany”, 5% or very close to the barrier – The left.
With ARD, the data looks a little different. There, conservatives and social democrats are equalized by 25 percent each; followed by the Greens with 15%, the far right and the Liberals with 11% each. The left is again above the barrier by 5%.
However, due to the small difference between the two parties, the tension will remain until the end, and for some time Germany will not be completely sure who the probable future chancellor is.
Social Democrat leader and finance minister Olaf Scholz still seems to be Germany’s most likely new chancellor at the moment. Although the projections give the Social Democrats a tie, the Conservative candidate Armin Laschet is many times less popular with Germans and is in an unprotected position in negotiations to insist that he succeed Angela Merkel as head of the federal government.
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– “It’s a long election night for sure,” Scholz himself said shortly after the results were announced. “It is even more certain, however, that many citizens have marked the GSDP in the ballot because they want a change in the government. They also want the next chancellor to be called Olaf Scholz.”
–According to the Infratest dimap agency, if the Germans could vote directly to become Chancellor in place of Angela Merkel, 45% approve of the Social Democrat Scholz.
SPIEGEL defines his behavior as far from euphoric; Scholz also warned that nothing was known until the official election results were announced, and that patience was needed.
–The Infratest Dimap study for ARD.
“The Social Democrats are back”
This is a heavy loss for the leading coalition partner so far, the Christian Democrats, who are shrinking by between 8 and 9 points. The Social Democrats won 5-6 points compared to the previous elections (depending on the exit poll).
The poor result of the Christian Democrats was expected even with the election of their candidate for Chancellor Armin Lashet. Some German media are already talking about the election results as confirmation that his election was a “catastrophe” for the HDZ union and their traditional partner, the Bavarian Christian Social Union. “We can’t be happy with the result,” Laschet himself said, but insisted he should still get a chance to be chancellor.
“GSDP is back”, stated immediately after the first exit poll, Secretary-General of the Social Democrats Lars Klingbail. “We have always known that this is a contested race,” but it is clear that the Germans want the GSDP to form a government, he continued.
If the results remain similar to those in the exit polls, it actually narrows the possibilities for forming a coalition and could again lead to a political stalemate, as it was for a short time in 2017 due to the intransigent positions of the parties.
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– There were happy reactions after the announcement of the results only at the headquarters of the Social Democrats.
Questions about the future Bundestag and difficult negotiations
The result suggests that negotiations to form a government could take months. This will leave Chancellor Angela Merkel in power indefinitely. Merkel, who has ruled since 2005, did not run for a fifth term and is preparing to step down after forming a government.
By comparison, the Christian Democrats took 32.9 percent in the previous election. The Social Democrats were far below them by 20.5%. Third was “Alternative for Germany” with 12.6 percent, followed by the Liberals with 10.7 percent, the Left – with 9.2. The Greens received only 8.9% of the vote.
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– What was the distribution of seats in the current parliament.
The Greens were the favorites to become the first political force only a few months ago, but scandals in the party and the inexperience of their candidate for chancellor, Analena Burbock, melted the lead. In fact this is the best result in the history of the Greens, but is far from the expectations of spring. In a statement after the forecast results, Burbock, in addition to noting the party’s record, also admitted to “mistakes”, including personal ones, that prevented the goal from being achieved. But the Greens have a “mandate for the future,” Burbock said.
The slight discrepancy between the two forecasts makes it even more difficult to make an accurate assessment of what the future Bundestag will look like. The ARD, which is much more optimistic about the Christian Democrats, lists them as a larger party with 200 deputies, 197 for the Social Democrats, 119 for the Greens, 87 for the far right and the Liberals and 39 for the Left.
In the ZDF – whose exit gender gives the Social Democrats an advantage – the seats in parliament look like this:
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What the results mean: options for coalitions
Pending the official results, the first data confirm only one thing – kthe coalition that will rule Germany will be tripartite. This will be the first such union at the federal level in the country’s history, although such formats exist in the German Länder.
The threshold for a majority in the Bundestag is 378 deputies and according to the forecast results from tonight, itemThe coalition options have a chance.
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– Disappointment among HDZ / HSS voters.
One is Social Democrats, Liberals and Greens (known as the “traffic light” because of the colors of each party). This coalition with the Free Democratic Party may be a bigger problem for the Greens because of their business orientation and lack of commitment to a larger transformation of energy and industry in the fight against climate change. Svetofar would have 434 deputies.
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– The Greens expected a better performance.
A victory for the Conservatives (or keeping the short distance between the two parties) would still create an opportunity for a new attempt at “Jamaica “or the green-black-yellow coalition (Conservatives, Liberals and Greens), which only two of the three parties would like. Here, too, it would be difficult to persuade the Greens, but because they see the Social Democrats more as a natural partner. There were negotiations for Jamaica in 2017 as well, but they failed – more because of the liberals. Jamaica would have 417 deputies.
Paul Tsimyak, secretary general of the HDZ, told ARD television that “the data show the possibility of a future-oriented coalition of the HDZ / HSS, the Greens and the Liberals” – the scenario known as “Jamaica”.
Saving on the current “grand coalition” – Christian Democrats and Social Democrats – would mean a majority of 413 people in the Bundestag.
The option is very close to the threshold with 376 deputies social democrats, greens and far left (“red-green-red”). Such a format – widely discussed before the election – is readily accepted by the Greens, but the Social Democrats set one condition – a clear commitment to Euro-Atlantic values, which the far left will find difficult to accept. It is less and less likely due to the poor result of the far left. Even if they finally cross the 5% barrier, common support for the three parties will not be enough.
However, given the current situation – and given the unpopularity of the “grand coalition” that has ruled since 2013, it seems most likely that the Liberals will be the balancer in future negotiations, German observers commented. This is evidenced by the comments of their leader Christian Lindner, who said that “the Free Democratic Party received one of the best results in its history.”
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Expectations for record activity
Expectations of record turnout are yet to be confirmed or refuted. At 2 pm local time (3 pm Bulgarian time) it was only 36.5%, less than in the previous two elections. However, the record number of voters by mail – probably over 40% of all votes – is likely to increase turnout by more than 76% by 2017.
–Traditionally, turnout in federal elections since World War II has been high – over 70%. This time, however, record mail activity is expected.
The “Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung” tells of long queues for voting in places like Berlin, where the local senate is also voted on and where the process takes an average of an hour and many have actually failed to cast the ballot.
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– At around 7 pm, an hour after the end of election day, there were queues of more than 100 people in many places in Berlin.
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