The lack of semiconductor components is still crippling the global economy and especially automakers. According to the consulting company AlixPartners, a shortage of chips is now expected to cost the global automotive industry $ 210 billion in 2021 (about 4.6 trillion crowns).
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The New York company released its first forecast at the end of January, when a problem with parts began to cause carmakers to reduce production at the plants. At the time, it was estimated that there would be losses of $ 60.6 billion.
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Of course, everyone hoped that the chip crisis would ease, but the unfortunate events only made the situation worse.
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In May, AlixPartners changed its forecast, assuming a shortage of chips would cost the automaker $ 110 billion. However, new data show that this will be about twice the May estimate.
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“Of course, everyone hoped that the chip crisis would ease, but the unfortunate events, such as the closure in Malaysia over the spread of coronavirus, only made the situation worse,” Mark Wakefield, global head of automotive and industrial practice at AlixPartners, told CNBC.
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Stocks are depleted
According to AlixPartners, the carmakers will produce 7.7 million fewer vehicles this year. Even in this case, it is roughly double the previous estimate from May, when the company expected that “only” 3.9 million cars would not be produced.
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Sales have not suffered much so far, because there were enough stocks to draw from. Now the reserves are depleted.
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Although efforts have been made to strengthen the supply chain in recent months, the availability of semiconductors has deteriorated. Mainly because car manufacturers have exhausted their stocks and other industries no longer have chips available.
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“The barrel is empty,” Dan Hearsch, CEO of AlixPartners Automotive and Industrial Practice, told Bloomberg. According to him, the shortage will be reflected primarily in sales. “They have not suffered much so far, because there were enough supplies to draw from. Now the reserves are exhausted, “added Hearsch.
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Leading car manufacturers, including Ford Motor and General Motors, also agree. They have already warned this year against a massive reduction in profits. However, the losses were partly saved by consumers, who bought cars despite the record increase in vehicle prices.
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The problems will last until next year
According to Hearsch, the biggest intervention in production occurred in the second quarter of this year: “It was the worst period in terms of chip shortages. Especially in the case of the automotive industry. “
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Hearsch also added that the automotive industry did not recover as quickly as AlixPartners expected in May. “The spread of the delta variant and the increase in the number of infected people in Malaysia and other Southeast Asian countries also wavered with production, which caused factory closures,” Hearsch added for CNBC.
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AlixPartners expects the component issue to continue until at least the second quarter of next year. Hearsch said it would “probably be a little longer”. He recalled that the problem at present is not only in semiconductors, but also in paralyzed global transport and the lack of other materials.
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