After a few weeks, the stability changed koruna smr. Over the past week
weakened you euro o 1 % and intended to be more pessimistic about the forecast. He was disconnected by an imaginary burst Poland a Bulgaria from zemnho
gas. Mask showed that he is willing to inflict economic loss and accept the situation when Europe beige gas zam do recession. Vvoj crown thus reflecting foreign pressures and in addition to the weak equals and other currencies in the region. At the lowest level in the last 5 let dropped so euro vi
dollar. Domc situation, on the other hand, was quite calm. Vvoj HDP in the first quarter, it slightly exceeded estimates (growth by 0.7% q / q vs. equals + 0.4%), while most European countries lagged slightly behind. There was no impulse to house central bank had to react more vigorously. Decided on further settings
rates it will come on Thursday and the members of the board have left room in their weekdays. Zatmco Tom Holub videmmi uekvan hike o 50bb jako spodn border, viceguvernr Tom Nidetzsk said the words and said that for him it is the upper limit. Deputy Governor Marek Mora did not help more vigorously in the form of an echo, according to which rates they could grow by a percentage point, but they wouldn’t have to grow at all. Despite the uncertainties analysts called Bloomberg unanimously, as we are called rates o 50
bazickch bod.
NB so I can surprise the space again, but this time on ob parties. In reaction to high
inflate and with a new forecast in hand, members of the board can come to the last ride and the market will start again by 75bb. But with a similar probability, they may also reflect weak ekonomick rst and gradually moved inflation to nabdkov parties. This could materialize into a standard 25bb hike, along with the verbal indication that in June it may not happen again. It is the roadwhich would probably surprise the market more than through FRA rates je stle nacenn rst repo rates a k
6% border, respectively tsn above it. For the crown, this would mean putting the threat weakened. In addition to domc central bank be on day two o sazbch to decide i americk Fed. The one with the highest probability will be increased by 50bb, a few analysts should have a standard increase of 25bb. There will also be press conferences and information on the pace at which central bank about to reduce its enormous balance. At the end of the week they come msn data z
americkho labor marketwhere the market hopes to confirm strong american economy po nepli znm vsledku from the first quarter.
Author: Vratislav Zmi, analyst
Editor: David Vagenknecht, analyst Economic Research Team Raiffeisenbank as
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