Knife attacks in the subway, serial shootings, including in Times Square: after long praising itself as one of the safest metropolises in the world, New York is facing increasing crime, which has become a central theme of the municipal campaign.
After the 1970s and 1980s during which the first American metropolis, in the midst of a budgetary crisis, experienced endemic crime, the latter had been declining since the mid-1990s.
But the picture has darkened since the summer of 2020. And what initially looked like a passing consequence of the precariousness due to the pandemic and the movement against police violence after the death of George Floyd no longer seems to be an epiphenomenon.
“Violence is clearly on the rise (…) and the rise of 2020 is likely to continue into 2021,” said John Pfaff, professor of criminal law at Fordham University. “There is enormous economic uncertainty, enormous stress (…). Everything contributes to the violence, which tends to perpetuate itself”.
New York may gradually emerge from the health crisis, and unemployment is falling, the statistics are not improving.
The latest, arrested on May 9, report 505 victims of shootings since the beginning of January, against 275 over the comparable period of 2020 and the highest for 10 years.
Over the same period, some 146 murders were recorded, + 27% compared to 2020 and + 40% compared to 2019.
Officially, crime in the metro is down (-43%). But many find this figure misleading, as attendance has plummeted with the pandemic.
On May 8, a daytime shooting that injured two women and a child in Times Square propelled the subject to the heart of the municipal campaign, six weeks before the June 22 Democratic primary. These primaries are expected to nominate the winner of the November election, given the unpopularity of Republicans in New York.
The main contenders are ex-presidential candidate Andrew Yang, Brooklyn president and ex-police officer Eric Adams, or Raymond McGuire, a more centrist ex-Wall Street banker.
In a race that is still very open, the candidates have since succeeded in this Mecca of New York tourism, promising decisive action to improve safety if they are elected.
And during their first virtual debate Thursday evening, the subject kept coming back.
– Political recovery –
On Friday, the president of the New York transport authority, Pat Foye, increased the pressure, calling for “an immediate injection” of hundreds of police in the stations, where their presence has already been reinforced in recent weeks.
He even described as “irresponsible” the outgoing mayor, the far left Democrat Bill de Blasio, accused of “ignoring the reality” of users.
Asked about a local radio station, Mr. de Blasio repeated his mantra: namely that crime will drop with the resumption of economic activity, which seems to be taking shape with the lifting of restrictions due to the epidemic.
He also accused Mr. Foye of “stirring up fear” at the behest of Democratic Governor Andrew Cuomo. Political enemy of the mayor and supervisor of New York transport, the governor frequently accuses the mayor of inaction on crime.
In fact, if the increase in violence is indisputable, so is its political recovery.
Some in the Republican camp, like Fox News commentator Tucker Carlson, even present New York as a new cut-throat, far from the reality on the ground.
Others on the contrary, especially in the Democratic camp, call for relativization.
“I don’t hear anyone around me saying, + I don’t feel safe. + (…) There is a political attempt to steer the discussion,” says Susan Kang, law professor at the university. New Yorker John Jay.
“Even though the crime figures are increasing, they are still quite low” for a city of this size, she said. Especially since most American metropolises have also seen crime increase over the past year.
While the movement against police violence had pushed some Democrats to demand a reduction in the budget of a New York police force of some 35,000 officers – the largest in the country – for the benefit of services to underprivileged communities, she regrets that the discussion is now moving towards an often ineffective reinforcement of police deployments.
“Times Square already has a large female police presence. How would more police officers improve the situation?” she asks herself.
Whatever measures are taken, “the problem will not be resolved quickly,” predicts Christopher Herrmann, another John Jay expert. “The new mayor is coming with a pile of bad news on his desk.”
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