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As of the morning of March 20, 3,983 cases of coronavirus infection were confirmed in Britain. By 13 o’clock on Friday, the number of deaths reached 177. The analysis was taken from 66 976 people.
According to a computer model developed at Imperial College London and used to inform the government, half a million people can die from a coronavirus in the country if preventive measures are not taken.
The same model predicted 250,000 deaths if a containment strategy was adopted, which the British authorities have now abandoned, moving on to delaying the peak of the epidemic.
It was these data that prompted the government on Monday to announce that the country has introduced the most stringent measures since the Second World War to restrict the movement of people. People are advised to stop visiting pubs, theaters, cinema, clubs, and work from home if possible.
These measures have already led to serious consequences for the economy – many jobs have been threatened, schools have closed, exams are being canceled.
Experts: there is no other way
If the government wants to avoid the deaths of 250 thousand people, it has no other choice [кроме принятия жестких мер]said Professor Neil Ferguson, one of the country’s leading epidemiologists involved in the development of the model, in an interview with the BBC.
Doctors now hope that the number of deaths will not exceed 20 thousand, provided that tough measures are taken to isolate people, said Sir Patrick Vallance, the government’s chief scientific adviser, speaking in parliament at a meeting of the health committee.
According to him, about eight thousand people die every year from ordinary flu in Britain. Vallance believes that the figure of 20 thousand deaths is “terrible”, but it is still the best outcome in the current circumstances.
Would these people not die from other causes?
These figures are amazing, but from this model it is not clear how many of these people would die from other causes.
Given that older people with chronic diseases are the most vulnerable group of the population, can we assume that mortality among them would be high without coronavirus?
Every year in England and Wales, for natural reasons, more than 500 thousand people die; if you include Scotland and Northern Ireland in these statistics, the figure will increase to 600 thousand people.
Coronavirus mortality will not add much to this figure. Most likely, many of those who died from coronavirus would die in any case, but from other causes.
Patrick Vallance acknowledged this fact at a press conference on Thursday when he announced that coronavirus mortality statistics would be superimposed on general statistics on expected deaths. However, he refused to give his assessment of the extent of this overlay.
Comparison with the flu
The estimated number of deaths from influenza that Vallance cited – eight thousand people – differs from the usual estimates. This figure is more than expected in any year.
Many die with the flu, but this figure does not reflect the number of people whose immediate cause of death was the flu. Forecasts of coronavirus deaths – 20 thousand, 250 thousand and 500 thousand – indicate deaths associated with coronavirus, but it may not be the cause of death.
Studies in many countries give doctors an idea of when a coronavirus patient dies from the effects of this infection. However, we do not know to what extent coronavirus caused death.
Need new research
Other factors, of course, affect this whole situation. But it is clear that if you abandon the most stringent measures, the number of deaths will begin to grow very quickly.
The authors of the model indicate that without such measures in Britain, 500 thousand deaths could be by August.
Such a scale of mortality will lead to the collapse of the state healthcare system, which, in turn, will endanger the lives of even more people who cannot be provided with medical care.
However, there is evidence that the authors of the model underestimated the ability of the British healthcare system to increase resources for intensive care of patients with coronavirus.
Simon Stevens, head of the England health service, said after the publication of the model that the capabilities of the intensive care system could be doubled.
This model does not take into account the economic and social consequences of measures taken by the authorities, which in themselves can endanger the life and health of millions of people.
As Britain plunges into crisis, more information will be needed on how many lives have been saved and what kind of society has suffered the costs. These data will help government and society make the best decisions.
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