Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia – Russian President Vladimir Putin is considered the victor in Russia’s conflict with Ukraine, which involves the United States (US) and NATO.
This is what Italian political scientist Lucio Caracciolo said in an interview with the local newspaper La Stampam quoted by TASS, Friday (18/2/2022).
Although he said it was too early to give an assessment, he considered Putin to have won a tactical victory. Here’s why:
1. Russia is again considered by the US
This can be seen from Russia’s return to a role that the US reckons with. Russia even negotiated to ensure Ukraine did not join NATO.
“He has started Russian and American talks on global strategic weapons, then European security architecture and made sure Ukraine will not join NATO,” he said.
“He (Putin) affirmed the principle that Russia is a great power.”
Russia’s role is also seen in the resolution of other conflicts such as Kazakhstan. Not to mention, he said, Moscow’s expanding influence in Africa.
2. Not really attacking, just maintaining tension
Regarding the Russian attack on Ukraine itself, which was heralded by the West, Caracciolo said it could not be ruled out. But, it would be a failure for Putin himself.
“Putin will face dissent from Russia itself. This would contradict the asserted thesis of the Russian-Ukrainian fraternity,” he explained, doubting the attack.
“By maintaining tension, he (Putin) has achieved all of his goals, starting with a discussion on global security.”
3. “Defeat” Ukraine without a Military Strike
He also said that Ukraine was not really a US priority. So the country can only rely on limited US and European support.
“No one thought about their real accession (Ukraine) to NATO,” he added.
Without an arms strike, he said Putin had “defeated” Ukraine.
“Putin has also pushed Ukraine to the point where it has become unattractive to foreign investment.”
4. Gas Is Not So Important, Only Strategy and Geopolitics
The issue of gas, in which Russia is Europe’s largest gas exporter, also does not play such an important role.
“I don’t think it’s about a war on gas. It’s a strategic and geopolitical game. Even America is not interested in eliminating Europe’s energy dependence on Russia completely,” he said.
Russia is one of the major exporters of this energy source. According to data agency Eurostat in 2020, Russia accounted for about 38% of the EU’s natural gas imports which shipped nearly 153 billion cubic meters.
The White Bear Country’s contribution has been getting bigger in Europe since the Dutch gas production decreased due to the closure of gas fields. Not to mention the closure of the French Nuclear Power Plant (PLTN) and the German Coal Steam Power Plant (PLTU).
(boss / boss)
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