The first international hockey tournament in almost a decade is fast approaching.
February’s 4 Nations tournament will be the first time we see the world’s best hockey players compete for their countries since the 2016 Ice Hockey World Cup. With this long break, the national federations of the United States, Canada , Sweden and Finland are basically selecting new teams. The 23-man roster must be submitted by Dec. 2, and some of the toughest selections occur on the field, where teams select three goaltenders.
We already know one of the goalkeepers, as the Finnish Yuse Saros was among the 24 players announced at the end of June. It was an easy choice as Saros is one of the NHL’s brightest Finnish stars. Some of the other decisions require more consideration, especially for the United States, where three Vezina contenders are competing for the network.
Canada has a completely different dilemma. A country that has produced many of the best goalkeepers in the history of the sport suddenly has no shining star in the rankings. Pierre LeBrun detailed the decisions general manager Don Swinney had to make last week, so let’s start there as we predict each nation’s goaltenders.
Canada
The best option for the Canadian St.Louis is Jordan Binnington, who is quietly coming off a great season. While the Blues struggled as a team last year, it was largely overlooked how good Binnington was. His 29.74 goals against average was good for second in the NHL and surpassed his phenomenal 2018-19 campaign that ended with a Stanley Cup. Binnington has a high ceiling and can steal a game like few goaltenders can when he’s at his best. However, Team Canada may be looking for a more consistent and predictable goaltender behind what should be a top-to-bottom lineup.
Other options include the final two goaltenders who will represent the Western Conference in the Stanley Cup Finals: Las Vegas’ Adin Hill and Edmonton’s Stuart Skinner. Neither has been a true number one goalkeeper for a long time, but both have shown they can do it on the big stage. Both are also great positional goalkeepers, which can be an advantage.
Another interesting option is Montreal’s Sam Montembo, who never played in the postseason but was excellent for the Canadiens. Montembeault has already posted a league-high 6.59 GSAx in three seasons this season, fueled largely by his 48-save performance against Toronto on opening night.
Options: Adin Hill, Jordan Binnington y Sam Montembo
In the discussion: Stuart Skinner, Connor Ingram y Cam Talbot
Jets goalie Connor Hellebuyck tops the list of most notable American goaltenders. (Zac BonDurant/Getty Images)
USA
No team in this tournament can match the United States, but in the end, only three goalkeepers will make the team, and surely only one will be left between the pipes at the end.
Reigning Vezina Trophy winner Connor Hellebuyck leads a tight-knit group of American goaltenders. He had the best statistical season of his career with a .921 save percentage and 39.35 goals against better than expected. He has been even better to start the 2024-25 season, allowing just two goals total in his first three games.
If there’s an argument against Hellebuyck, it’s his last playoff appearance. He scored 24 goals in a five-game series against Colorado last April and posted a .900 save percentage in those final two postseason games. Even with these struggles, Hellebuyck has been the most consistent goaltender in the NHL for several years, so it would be surprising not to see him as a top-two goalie.
Hellebuyck last represented his country at the 2016 IIHF World Championship, when he won both of his starts as the United States’ No. 2 goalie behind Jimmy Howard.
Jeremy Swayman doesn’t have Hellebuyck’s long track record, but he’s been just as impressive over the past two years. Swayman also has last year’s playoff mark on his resume, where he led all goaltenders with a .933 save percentage. He was sensational in goal for Boston, saving almost a full goal per game expected in the playoffs.
If you separate the three biggest games of the season (Game 7 of the first round against Toronto and Games 5 and 6 of the second round with Florida eliminated), Swayman stopped 84 of 88 shots for a . 955. He is a passionate competitor who has proven his ability to elevate his game in big moments. US GM Bill Guerin will be split on details when it comes to picking these elite chains, and Swayman’s strong performances could give him the edge. Swayman went 4-3-0 for the USA at the 2021 IIHF World Championship, helping the Americans to a bronze medal.
Dallas’ Jake Oettinger shouldn’t be overlooked in the conversation. Swayman and Oettinger were 25 years old when they were drafted in 2017, but Oettinger won 59 more NHL games and established himself as a workhorse for the Stars. Last season was a down year for the Lakeville, Minnesota native, but he was solid in the playoffs and is off to a 2-0-0 start in 2024-25. His calm and calculated approach could fit well behind what should be a talented American team.
Those are the top three goalies in the US, but there are a few more goalies who could force their names into the conversation between now and December 2nd.
Joey Daccord is coming off a great season in Seattle in which he posted a .916 save percentage in 46 starts. He will split games with Philipp Grubauer for the Kraken, so he may not have the workload to prove himself during roster selection.
Charlie Lindgren is in a very similar situation in Washington, coming off a career year and expected to part ways with Logan Thompson. Joseph Wall is another talented youngster in the United States, but he was ruled out with a lower-body injury to start the season in Toronto.
Options: Connor Hellebuyck, Jeremy Swayman and Jake Ottinger
In the discussion: Joey Dacord, Charlie Lindgren and Joseph Woll
Sweden
Sweden has a long history of being the best on the grid and this team is no different. The Swedes are led by two clear stars and the biggest question is which of the two will get the majority. Jakob Markström and Linus Ullmark are top goalkeepers and both are at new clubs for the 2024-25 season. How they adapt to their new environment and how they perform between now and December will determine who will start the 4-Nation Showdown as starters.
Markstrom had a solid 2023-24 season, but was largely overlooked as Calgary’s defensive struggles hurt his on-base stats. At first glance, his .905 save percentage is solid but not great, but when you take into account the difficulty of Markstrom’s shots, his stats look much more impressive. He led all goaltenders with a .857 save percentage on dangerous shots and was third in goals against saves (28.93), behind only Hellebuyck and Binnington.
Markstrom, now playing behind a Devils team with expectations, has a chance to reestablish himself as one of the NHL’s best. His unique combination of size and athleticism makes him one of the toughest to beat when he’s on his game.
Ullmark also changed teams this offseason, but enters a much different situation. After three impressive seasons in Boston (including the Vezina Trophy win in 2022-23), Ullmark was traded to Ottawa, where he signed a four-year contract extension. Expectations are high for the Senators, who are currently enduring a seven-year playoff drought. If Ullmark can help that young team take the next step toward the postseason, he will go a long way toward establishing himself as Sweden’s best option in net. He’s off to a good start with a .914 save percentage through two games.
After that, two things become interesting for the Swedish team. The third goalkeeper might not be eligible for a tournament match, which could influence GM Anders Lundberg’s decision.
Sweden has some quality NHL options, including Minnesota’s Filip Gustavsson, Philadelphia’s Samuel Ersson and Chicago’s Arvid Soderblom, who had an excellent season debut on Friday.
But the best option for the third Swedish goalkeeper could be young Jesper Walstedt. The 21-year-old is one of the best goalkeepers in the world and possibly the country’s future in net. While he will open the season in the American Hockey League and is not one of the options mentioned above, it might be wise for the Swede to give Walstedt some experience to draw on as his future starter. He has already represented the country many times, but participating in this tournament among the best can pay off, even if only from the bench.
Options: Jacob Markström, Linus Ullmark and Jesper Wahlstedt
In the discussion: Philip Gustavsson, Samuel Ersson and Arvid Soderblom
Nashville Juuse Saros is the undisputed player in Finland’s goal. (Brett Carlsen/Getty Images)
Finland
Of the four teams in the tournament, Finland’s cut may be the easiest to predict. As mentioned above, Saros is the clear No. 1, and Buffalo’s Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen should be an easy pick for the backup spot.
As of 2019, only Hellebuyck started more NHL games and made more saves than Saros. He is a proven workhorse goalie who has shown the ability to put up amazing numbers even without an elite team in front of him. In 2022-23, Saros will save 45.49 goals against, the third-best figure in a single season since Evolving-Hockey began keeping the metric in 2007. The Finns enter this tournament as the underdogs, but there is a goalie who can help them steal the show, that’s Saros.
Luukkonen is a good backup option. He took a big step in his development last season, starting a Saber-high 51 games. The 25-year-old has shown that he has what it takes to handle a real starting workload, both physically and mentally, and in doing so is well above league average.
It is interesting to see how different the two styles of these Finnish goalkeepers are. Saros is smaller and relies on quickness and athleticism. Luukkonen is a 6-foot-5, 217-pound monster in net, and is more of a cerebral goalie who relies on the position.
Behind those two, Finland’s third goalkeeping spot is wide open. Jonas Korpisalo, who backs up Swayman in Boston, is the most established of the group. He’s coming off a bad season in Ottawa and hasn’t had the best start as a Bruin, but he has made over 250 starts in the NHL.
If Finnish GM Jere Lehtinen prefers a solid, veteran presence as a third goalkeeper, Korpisalo is the choice. If you decide to give a younger goalie experience, Colorado’s Justus Annunen is a good option. The 24-year-old started 12 games for the Avalanche last season and had the highest percentage of any goaltender in the league with at least 10 games.
Other Finnish options include Kevin Lankinen, who backed up Saros in Nashville the past two seasons before signing with Vancouver this summer, and Kaapo Kahkonen, who was recently claimed by Colorado as a third goalie.
Options: Juse Saros, Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen and Justus Annunen
In the discussion: Joonas Korpisalo, Kevin Lankinen and Kaapo Kyahkonen
