Presidential votes in the US, Russia and Ukraine in 2024 could be as important as battlefield events, writes political scientist Ivan Krastev in the Financial Times
It is generally accepted that wars end with negotiations. But they often run out or are frozen at the polls. The American war in Vietnam and the French war in Algeria ended there, and the electoral defeat of Slobodan Milosevic in 2000 marked the real end of the wars in the former Yugoslavia, writes political scientist Ivan Krastev in an article for the Financial Times.
Today, the war in Ukraine is being fought in the shadow of critical elections scheduled for 2024. Elections in Russia, Ukraine, Taiwan and the United States will be decisive in shaping the course of the war in 2023. The outcome of these votes
it can determine the shape of the future international order
In March 2023 there will be presidential elections in Russia and Ukraine. It takes a lot of imagination to imagine Vladimir Putin losing an election organized with the sole idea of winning it. But burdened by his failed “special operation”, he has every reason to fear that in the event of a military defeat or a freezing of the conflict to his detriment, he will face opposition not only from the few remaining liberals in the country, but also from a mobilized nationalist right.
This has not happened in his administration for more than two decades, but an election campaign combined with defeats at the front
can unlock that anti-Putin impulse,
long awaited by Europeans and Americans, although it is highly unlikely that it will be a boost to freedom in Russia.
The political scientist then analyzes the upcoming elections in Ukraine. They will also strongly influence the strategic decisions of President Volodymyr Zelensky in 2023. He could not accept any territorial compromise if he did not want to lose the vote. Postponing the election is not an option.
Holding elections during wartime, when the majority of the population is out of the country or internally displaced, will be a huge logistical challenge for Zelensky. Holding free and fair elections will be of paramount importance in strengthening Ukraine’s image as a democratic David fighting against the autocratic Russian Goliath.
In the electoral cocktail of 2024, the presidential elections in Taiwan could also prove to be an unpredictable factor in the dynamics of the Russian-Ukrainian war, Ivan Krastev’s analysis continues. The fear of a nationalist victory could affect Beijing’s “unification” strategy. It is not yet known what conclusions President Xi Jinping has drawn from the Russian invasion. Did he conclude that Putin was wrong to start the war or that his mistake was to start it too late?
The desire to keep the Americans at bay could lead the Chinese government, sufficiently humiliated by the failure to contain the Covid-19 pandemic, to step up its support for Moscow in hopes of keeping US attention trapped in the European conflict.
The US presidential elections, and to a lesser extent those of the European Parliament, will also have a direct impact on the progress of the war, writes Ivan Krastev.
The US presidential election could prove more decisive for the outcome of the war
than any military operation in the field. Ukrainians could not resist Putin’s killing machine if the Americans and Europeans cut their substantial military and financial support.
Ukrainians therefore have reason to fear that Democrats could lose the presidential election, as US support for their war effort could weaken if some Republican voters win. For both Democrats and their European allies, Putin’s success in the Donbass or NATO’s direct intervention in the war would have a dramatic impact, both on the election of the next American president and on the elections of the next European Parliament.
A Russian success on the front or more serious NATO involvement in the conflict could tip the balance of the upcoming US elections in favor of the Republicans. The last thing Democrats and their European allies need is for voters to blame the White House for starting World War III.
For Joe Biden and his European allies to win elections, it is imperative that Ukrainians continue to win on the battlefield.
thinks Ivan Krastev.
We know how economic interdependence and the proliferation of nuclear weapons have changed the character of modern warfare. However, we are still blind to how the upcoming elections could change the course of the war in Ukraine, especially at a time of global hyperpolarisation.
What’s the lesson? To win a war in the 21st century, it’s not always enough to have superiority on the battlefield. You also need to win the elections, and not just in your own country, concludes the political scientist.
