[이종훈의 政說]
Indictment by the prosecution, decline in the approval rating of the Democratic Party, massive water change
Lee Jae-myeong, leader of the Democratic Party of Korea, greets people after making personal remarks regarding his arrest motion at the plenary session of the National Assembly in Yeouido, Seoul on February 27. [뉴스1]
138 votes against. This is the report card accepted by Lee Jae-myung, the representative of the Democratic Party (Democratic Party). Assuming that all votes against the motion for arrest came from the hands of lawmakers from the Democratic Party, 81.66% of the 169 voters sided with Lee. On the face of it, that doesn’t sound bad, but considering that six members of the Justice Party and some of the pro-Democratic independents voted against it, the story changes. In this case, it is estimated that more than 31 members of the Democratic Party voted to ‘revolt’. Assuming that 9 abstaining votes and 11 invalid votes include Democratic Party lawmakers, the number of rebellious votes increases further.
It does not appear that an ‘organized rebellion’ took place as the circumstances of the Democratic Party’s conspiracy were not revealed. Yeouido is a political sphere with a lot of talk and a lot of trouble. Had there been a public offering, it would have been known somehow. Rather, it was Lee who actively moved. A typical example is the persuasion process through one-on-one interviews with non-Lee Jae-myeong (Bimyeong) lawmakers. As a result of these efforts, a consensus was reached at the general assembly of members on February 21st to reject the bill through voluntary voting.
138 votes against the screaming world
What does it mean that more than 31 votes were cast even though there was no organized collusion? It means that there are quite a few Lee Jae-myung vito forces within the Democratic Party. Even lawmakers who screamed at the unexpected result seemed surprised. Concerned that there might be sparks, the regular meeting of the “Road of the Democratic Party” led by non-myeong-gye lawmakers, scheduled for February 28, the day after the vote, was canceled. The killing squad is circulating around the supporters of Representative Lee Kang-seong, and text message terrorism is also being committed against lawmakers who are screaming.
What choices will the screaming world make in the future? You can pressure CEO Lee to resign, or you can live as if you are dead, hoping for a leniency. When looking at the voting results, the former is weighted. This is because the vote confirmed the ‘minimum level of power’. Individual lawmakers in front of the party representative are weak. It’s because their own nominations depended on it. However, if you form a group, it becomes possible to confidently claim a certain share. 31 is 18.34% of Democratic lawmakers. The higher the number, the higher the stake.
They are likely to set the prosecution’s prosecution of CEO Lee as the ‘first D-Day’ for resignation pressure. The revision of Article 80 of the party constitution created a basis for maintaining the representative post after prosecution, but it is possible to request resignation under the pretext of the spirit of a former heir to the party. Even the screaming world would not expect Lee to comply with the request. However, there is a possibility that it will be pursued at the level of ‘let’s expand our forces and aim for the next opportunity’.
The ‘2nd D-Day’, which raises a collective protest against President Lee, will be the point at which the Democratic Party’s approval rating plummets. The approval rating of the Democratic Party rebounded in the political situation of the arrest motion for Lee. In a poll of 1,000 adult men and women nationwide conducted by Gallup Korea, a professional opinion polling agency, for two days from February 21st, the approval rating for the Democratic Party was 34%, up 4%p from the previous week (sampling error ±3.1 at the 95% confidence level). %p. For more information on public opinion polls, refer to the website of the National Election Opinion Survey Deliberation Committee).
It may be the result of the temporary gathering of progressive supporters, but it is doubtful whether the trend will continue even after Lee is indicted. In the process of the trial, if the charges are revealed in detail and the likelihood of guilt increases, the atmosphere of ‘stop loss’ will spread even among the progressive supporters (see box article). If the party’s approval rating declines, it should be seen that the argument for Lee’s resignation will gain momentum again.
Lee, should I take out a resignation card for silence?
The 3rd D-Day will be the nomination period. If CEO Lee maintains his position until then, he should be seen as attempting a large-scale water change. In a good way, it is ‘reform nomination’, and in a bad way, it is ‘nomination massacre’. It is the process of clearing up the screaming system centered on the family reunion that gave him sorrow while solidifying the organizational foundation within the Democratic Party, which is the biggest weakness. The Screaming World, which has been degraded to be cleaned up, will protest collectively.
If internal conflicts lead to a drop in party approval ratings, the screaming world may try to push for a dramatic big deal. It is a last resort that can be taken in a situation where he tried to resign Lee, but failed. There are observations that the screaming world may form a new party after leaving the group, but the possibility is not high. This is because similar attempts have been made several times in the past, and each time it has failed.
On the contrary, there is a possibility that CEO Lee will take out the withdrawal card. It is a strategy to take out the resignation card to silence the screaming world if it repeatedly raises the resignation. Of course, this is also not very feasible. Not long ago, lawyer Shinpyeong, who served as the chairman of the People’s Power Rep. Kim Ki-hyun’s support group, made a statement to the effect that “President Yoon Seok-yeol may create a new party if Rep. Ahn Cheol-soo, the presidential candidate, becomes the People’s Power party representative.” It conveyed the unspoken pressure to make Rep. Kim the party representative to the party members. Representative Lee’s withdrawal card should also be viewed as a similar strategic statement.
Who will win the bout between President Lee, who is trying to hold on to the end, and the screaming world, who is trying to push it to the end? So far, President Lee, who holds the party power, seems to have an advantage, but it is difficult to predict the outcome. It is unclear whether the Democratic Party will be able to create an advantageous composition in the general elections next year. If the judicial risk is not properly resolved, even if Lee wins the power struggle within the party, he may not be able to accept the strange report card in which he is defeated by the people in the general election.
“The biggest loss since Dangun… Deferred payment bribery” Han Dong-hoon explains Lee allegation
Justice Minister Han Dong-hoon explains the reason for requesting consent to the arrest of Democratic Party leader Lee Jae-myeong at a plenary session of the National Assembly in Yeouido, Seoul on February 27. [뉴스1]
“This case looks complex at first glance, but is actually very simple.”
Justice Minister Han Dong-hoon explained the reason for requesting consent to the arrest of Democratic Party leader Lee Jae-myung at a plenary session of the National Assembly in Yeouido, Seoul on February 27. Minister Han explained related matters for 15 minutes non-stop, but he seemed to focus on minimizing the use of legal terms, actively using metaphors, and seeking consent from lawmakers. Regarding the suspicion of preferential treatment for the Daejang-dong and Wirye New Town development projects, he likened it to “a salesperson selling a cell phone worth 1 million won to someone he knew secretly and selling it for 100,000 won.” In particular, regarding the allegation that CEO Lee discussed with Mr. Nam-wook and Kim Man-bae, who were participants in the project in the past, and created a guideline for the contest, he pointed out, “It was completely made by the test-takers to write the test questions themselves.” Representative Lee is accused of breach of trust, violation of the Public Officials’ Conflict of Interest Prevention Act, and bribery to a third party. Minister Han summarized Lee’s major criminal charges explained at the National Assembly.
① Suspicion of preferential treatment for Daejang-dong and Wirye New Town development projects
Regarding the suspicion of preferential treatment for the Daejang-dong and Wirye New Town development projects, Minister Han explained, “The essence of the crime is that Seongnam City has done all the work, and the profits are not Seongnam citizens, but Kim Man-bae and his gang, who were in ties with Seongnam Mayor Lee Jae-myung at the time, monopolized.” In fact, large-scale real estate development is all about securing land and obtaining permits, and in this process, Daejang-dong, including Nam-wook and Kim Man-bae, made huge profits without risk because CEO Lee intervened unfairly, such as using eminent domain or blocking competing businesses. Minister Han said, “From the point of view of the citizens, this is not the biggest achievement since Dangun, but the biggest loss since Dangun.”
Minister Han explained that Lee’s aides, Jeong Jin-sang, former head of the political affairs coordination office of the party leader, Kim Yong, former vice president of the Democratic Research Institute, and former Seongnam Urban Development Corporation’s planning headquarters director Yoo Dong-gyu formed a blood brotherhood with Kim Man-bae and promised to select the operator of the Daejang-dong development project. In particular, the court pointed out the fact that the court issued an arrest warrant after the alleged crime of former director Jeong promised to receive 42.8 billion won in bribes in exchange for preferential treatment in Daejang-dong.
② Seongnam FC donation suspicion
Regarding the suspicion of sponsoring Seongnam FC, Minister Han explained, “The essence of the criminal charge is that Mayor Lee first bargained for and received a bribe by selecting an easy-to-use local company with pending issues to be resolved.” In particular, he added, “The fact that the company wanted to keep the advertisement secret even after paying the advertisement fee clearly shows that the substance of this money is fraudulent money.” Minister Han also pointed out that “comic situations occurred one after another” in the process of accepting bribes. This is because “the bribe was paid in the form of a deferred payment bribe and an installment bribe.” In this way, it was expressed that Geon-geon paid the advertising expenses only after confirming that the companies were accepting the request from Seongnam City. Minister Han pointed out, “Illegal compensation was so clear and blatant.”
He also refuted Lee’s explanation that “there is absolutely nothing in the warrant that he received the money (directly).” Minister Han explained, “The crime of bribery to a third party is one in which the person himself should not receive a single penny, and if he receives even a single penny, it becomes a simple bribery crime.”
Lee Jong-hoon, CEO of Political Management Consulting, PhD in Political Science
Reporter Choi Jin-ryeol display@donga.com
