January to March: Warm winter continues, spring comes early Be careful of sudden heavy snow and temperature changes 3-month forecast
December 19, 2023 16:25
This is the outlook for the next three months (January to March). The winter-like air pressure distribution will be weaker than normal, making it less susceptible to cold air. The winter is trending warmer, and spring is likely to arrive sooner. There will also be less snow on the Sea of Japan side. However, there is a possibility that strong cold air will temporarily flow in, and the sea surface temperature in the Sea of Japan is high, so there is a risk of sudden heavy snowfall. There is a possibility that the temperature will drop suddenly, so you need to be careful about the temperature difference.
El Niño phenomenon continues
The overall atmospheric temperature will continue to be high throughout the world due to the effects of global warming.
Due to the residual effects of the positive Indian Ocean Dipole and the El Niño phenomenon, cumulonimbus clouds will occur more often in the western part of the tropical Indian Ocean, less from the southeast to the Philippines, and more likely near the International Date Line. As a result, westerly winds in the upper atmosphere are expected to meander around Japan and flow more north than normal.
Due to the influence of meandering westerly winds, the winter-like pressure distribution near Japan will be weaker than normal, making it less susceptible to the effects of cold air.
Warm winter continues from January to February, spring comes early
The influence of cold air will be weak, and the average temperature from January to February will be at or above normal in northern Japan, and above normal in eastern and western Japan, Okinawa and Amami. Although it is expected that there will be many warmer days than normal, we cannot let our guard down. There is a possibility that strong cold air will temporarily flow in, and if the cold air flows in, it will suddenly become bitterly cold, and the daily temperature difference will likely increase.
Average temperatures in March are expected to be at or above normal in northern and eastern Japan, and above normal in western Japan and Okinawa/Amami. Spring will come early.
It is difficult to have a winter-type air pressure distribution.
Since winter-like atmospheric pressure patterns are unlikely to occur, the amount of snowfall on the Sea of Japan side of northern, eastern, and western Japan will be lower than normal over the next three months. However, you need to be careful about sudden heavy snowfall. Sea surface temperatures in the Sea of Japan are still higher than normal. If strong cold air flows, even temporarily, into areas where sea surface temperatures are high, snow clouds are likely to develop, and there is a risk of sudden heavy snowfall.
Additionally, since the winter-like pressure pattern will not continue, it will be easier for low pressure systems to pass near Japan in January and February. The Pacific side of eastern Japan, western Japan, Okinawa, and Amami are susceptible to the effects of low-pressure systems, and precipitation is expected to be at or above normal. When a low-pressure system hits the southern coast, it can sometimes bring snow to the Pacific side, such as the plains of the Kanto region, and can have major impacts such as disrupting transportation.
From now on, you will need to take care of your health and be careful about sudden heavy snowfall on the Sea of Japan side and snow on the Pacific side.
・Northern Japan (Hokkaido/Tohoku)
・Eastern Japan (Kanto-Koshin, Tokai, Hokuriku)
・Western Japan (Kinki, Chugoku region, Shikoku, Kyushu)
What is El Niño phenomenon?
The El Niño phenomenon occurs in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Because easterly winds called trade winds blow in this area, warm seawater is usually blown toward the west near Indonesia, while cold seawater is rising up from deep in the ocean off the coast of South America to the east.
However, if the easterly wind weakens for some reason, the warm seawater from the west spreads eastward, and the force of the cold seawater rising to the east weakens, causing sea surface temperatures off the coast of South America to rise above normal. This phenomenon in which sea surface temperatures become higher than normal in the equatorial Pacific Ocean from near the international date line to the coasts of South America and continues for about a year is called the “El Niño phenomenon.”
The “El Niño phenomenon” is a phenomenon that occurs in the ocean, but when it occurs, it also affects the atmosphere, causing atmospheric pressure patterns to change from normal in various parts of the world. Things like where it rains and snows most often, how the wind blows, and the temperature change. It is said that Japan tends to experience warm winters when the “El Niño phenomenon” occurs.
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2023-12-19 07:25:08
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