The government set a goal next year to escape from this year’s negative growth and return to the economy before the novel coronavirus infection (Corona 19).
However, it is pointed out that such an initiative without an active vaccine is merely a’relief’ full of hope.
The word that will dominate the world economy next year is by far the best vaccine divide (gap). It means that whether or not a vaccine is secured greatly affects the growth of each country.
The government predicted that the growth rate of Korea’s gross domestic product (GDP) next year will be 3.2%, a sharp increase from -1.1% this year, in the direction of 2021 economic policy released on the 17th. Although discussions are being made on the upgrade, the economic team has not given up on economic optimism, and the government has pointed out whether to “spread vaccines” as a key factor in determining the growth rate next year.
In the future, the global economy is expected to get out of the corona crisis little by little, which means that the path of recovery and growth will vary greatly depending on the speed of distribution of vaccines and treatments in each country.
This is a sea that most experts agree on. Professor Ahn Dong-Hyun of the Department of Economics at Seoul National University said, “The impact of vaccine supply on the economy next year will be great.” “In the US (by vaccination), if Corona 19 ends in the first half of next year, the growth rate may increase by an additional 1-2 percentage points.” Analyzed.
Former lawmaker Seung-min Yoo also said through social media on the 17th, “Next year the world economy will become a vaccine divide. The country that secured the vaccine will graduate from Corona and economic vitality will be revived, and the country that failed to secure the vaccine will have no choice but to fall behind.”
Vaccine divide refers to the phenomenon of a gap between the countries that have secured the Corona 19 vaccine and those that do not, and the resulting imbalance spreads across the international economy and society.
In particular, many developed countries have secured or pre-ordered a large amount of Corona 19 vaccine for their own citizens, so it is predicted that vaccination in the rest of the country is practically possible only several years later.
Earlier, researchers at Johns Hopkins University’s Graduate School of Public Health said that wealthy countries, accounting for less than 15% of the world’s population, have 51% of the most promising vaccines, and close to 25% of the world’s population may not get the vaccine until 2022, no matter how fast. I evaluated it.
In fact, it has been confirmed that the UK, the US, and Japan have already successfully secured mass vaccines quickly. The amount of vaccines currently secured by these countries far exceeds the number of their own population.
So far, Korea has confirmed the pre-purchase of 10 million AstraZeneca vaccines. Ten million Pfizer vaccines and 4 million Janssen vaccines are expected to enter into a pre-purchase contract soon, and 10 million modder vaccines are aimed to be finalized around January next year.
Compared to those already in the vaccination stage of English and American, it is a situation that requires at least 3 to 6 months of mask protection.
The government is in a position that the late vaccine purchase is a decision that has in mind several reasons, such as proving safety and developing domestic treatments. However, experts criticize the government for being uncomfortable without considering the vaccine divide, causing adverse risks to economic recovery.
Kim Sang-bong, professor of economics at Hansung University, said, “I am concerned that the most promising Vaccines for Modena and Pfizer have not been properly secured and the vaccine supply budget is insufficient.” It is impossible.”
Professor Kim added, “It is not easy to achieve the 3% level in a situation where the industrial structure is not the same as in previous years due to Corona 19.” .
(Seoul = News 1)
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