From yesterday’s analysis on Bitcoin (BTC), quite a lot has happened again. The dynamics in the market is still quite decent, although it is no longer as extreme as before. At least something is happening and we will definitely not be bored because of it. But what to expect now? Bitcoin is already very close to the key resistance, so we will certainly see another retest soon, which will hopefully tell us a lot.
As I’ve heard a few times, I’m more inclined to reject it. However, there is a chance of a breakthrough, of course, and if we succeed, we will probably test the $ 47,500 as well. However, for the market to have any chance of a complete recovery, it must break through at least $ 52,000. Until then, each breakthrough is automatically considered potential bull trap.
Current situation at 1D TF BTC / USD
As for the daily BTC chart, even on a higher time frame, we have a clear breakthrough through the steep resistance diagonal, which is really positive. In fact, after the breakthrough, the trendboard was retested and the expansion resumed, when we are currently testing the lower limit of resistance and we can immediately observe a certain slowdown. In any case, we are close, so I expect testing today, no later than tomorrow.
The daily graph is very important at these moments, respectively close of individual candles. Bitcoin must show some initiative, because without it, not even the first strong resistance will break through. We just can’t go on without it. Again, however, I personally believe that price developments will be in the range of USD 42,000-30,000 for some time.
It’s such a middle ground and, moreover, the market will be able to time much better in the event of a breakthrough. In short, it would also come in handy for the market to try to generate before the next major move balance, when the breakthrough from it will be very authoritative for us.
So we’ll see how it all turns out. Not to forget, of course, the fibonacci level of 38.2% is 38.2%, so it is true that there is confluence. Also together with a niche on Volume Profile.
Indicators
According to RSI, the market is still following a well-established trend. The current values are less than 40 points, which is of course not enough. In order for Bitcoin to continue higher at all, it is first necessary to break into the upper half of the value. Without it, the market cannot be truly bullish. Otherwise, there is a bullish cross on the MACD, which can help the market.
Current situation at 4H TF BTC / USD
When we move on to the 4H chart, we find that there has already been a minor correction, from which the market eventually quickly cut out. There was a pretty nice reaction to the touch with the S / R level of 36,605 USD, when the downtrend diagonal is also close. We are testing at the moment EMA 55, and if we can break through, we’ll definitely test that $ 42,000 today.
Otherwise I have a pretty big problem with volumes. The last 24 hours are really quite weak, and if anyone claims that there will be a recovery, it doesn’t look like that at all in lower time frames. For Bitcoin to really have a chance, volumes are a prerequisite. And so far they are none again.
Indicators
RSI has been quite successful above 50 points for some time. But so far there is no hit parade and we will find out more only by testing 70 points. In any case, there is a bearish divergence on the MACD histogram, which I just forgot to mark.
In conclusion
At first glance, everything is ok and we will wait to see what happens when the course reaches the mentioned resistance. Personally, I calculate the rejection, but if there is enough momentum, maybe the breakthrough will succeed. Otherwise, a scenario with side consolidation applies.
ATTENTION: No data in the article is an investment board. Before you invest, do your own research and analysis, you always trade only at your own risk. The kryptomagazin.cz team strongly recommends individual risk considerations!
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