How are we in yesterday’s analysis on Bitcoin (BTC) showed we have a bullish cross on the weekly MACD, but unfortunately the volumes fall with each closed week. Thus, real demand is gradually declining with rising prices. In any case, he closed yesterday in a not very flattering form. The market therefore has a choice, either it negates the signal or it will respect it.
BTC long positions
The decline in BTC holdings in long positions is still declining. It’s no longer as dramatic a drop as two weeks ago, but it’s still a problem. When the price rises and traders get rid of long positions, this is not a very positive signal. The expectations are certainly not as good as they may seem at first glance. Respectively, the majority of traders on Bitfinex resort to distribution.
Unfortunately, relevant data from other exchanges are not known, so this is only one view. We can just assume that the situation is similar on other major stock exchanges, but that is all. In any case, if BTC starts to grow again in long positions, it is a positive signal.
Current situation at 1D TF BTC / USD
Now, we come to the part where we talk about the middle ground. Yesterday was quite tense, as the initial inertia indicated that Bitcoin already wanted to test another key rezistenční confluence around $ 52,500. Is here Low Volume Node, the so-called Golden Ratio to fibo and of course price resistance.
Simply put, this is a fairly strong level. During yesterday afternoon, however, the market began to weaken and the bulls lost the initiative for a few hours. By the end of the day, it was clear that they would not erase most of the previous losses. At the same time, however, it was clear that Monday’s candle would not be exactly favorable. It was just a question of how unfavorable it would be.
In the end, the market generated a so – called. Shooting Star (falling star). This is, of course, a bear-type candle, and if it appears at the very top, a reversal of the trend may result. But on August 14, we had a high at that time Hanging Man, which eventually triggered only a few days of correction.
Therefore, our shooting star does not automatically imply a turnaround. On the one hand, other signals must be confirmed, and on the other hand, its volumes are again average. The truth, however, is that in the context of the summer holidays, it is actually above average.
Indicators
Thanks to the fact that Monday’s close was higher than Friday’s, RSI brought us to the collection fourth divergence. So either it’s a bull trap or a huge bear trap. But it is good to realize that in order to completely eliminate divergences, it is a condition to climb above 52,500 USD.
In conclusion
The current week could easily decide. If the $ 52,500 test goes well, it’ll be fine. However, that would mean that Bitcoin would leave the Shooting Star from Monday completely unresponsive. That would be weird. However, even if the market responds with a price drop, a simple correction to $ 42,000 may result. However, it depends on the form of the price drop.
ATTENTION: No data in the article is an investment board. Before you invest, do your own research and analysis, you always trade only at your own risk. The kryptomagazin.cz team strongly recommends individual risk considerations!
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