So Bitcoin (BTC) stopped near $ 37,000. There is a visible effort to defend and the course bounced slightly. From the point of view of the lower time frames, it can therefore be said that the market is trying to have a higher market bottom compared to the market day of 24 January.
However, I emphasize that higher time frames, especially monthly ones, do not really look good. It would therefore be quite surprising to me if bitcoin around $ 37,000 created a higher market minimum. But of course it can’t be completely ruled out – we don’t have a crystal ball.
Current situation at 4H BTC / USD
On the 4H chart, we will only show the consolidation itself around USD 37,000. For a while, there was a possibility that bitcoin would lose its level, which would probably bring us close to $ 30,000. The room for the fall is here, so we could dynamically get to the low of January. So is this just a short break?
I would really stick to what we see on the daily and especially the weekly chart. This is not to say that we should ignore exchange rate developments on intraday time frames, but we need to assign weights correctly.
For interest, I enclose a chart of the yield of 2-year federal bonds. Today, the market has completely broken free from the chain and interest rates on these securities have risen by more than 40%. Then it more or less returned to the daily open. From this it is known that something very bad is happening behind the curtain and therefore it is reasonable to be patient and quite careful at this time.
Personally, this chart frightened me a lot this morning, because it means a complete sell-off of short-dated federal bonds. And if investors are trying to get rid of these securities quickly, it is sign of panic. Bonds go first, then it starts in the stock market – the same goes for bitcoin.
In conclusion
I don’t want to scare me in any way, but I personally think that the markets are balancing over the abyss. My main concern is that bitcoin will surprise us a lot and break through even the massive support confluence around $ 30,000. So something would happen that virtually no one expected. However, market psychology is very poorly estimated, so we will stick to market techniques for the time being.
ATTENTION: No data in the video is an investment board. The analysis does not try to predict future price developments. It serves exclusively as educational content on how to approach the market. Before you invest, do your own research and analysis, you always trade at your own risk. The kryptomagazin.cz team strongly recommends individual risk considerations!
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