20th Shangri-La Dialogue Focuses on Sino-U.S. Tensions, International Security Issues

Aaron Connelly (Aaron Connelly), a senior researcher on Southeast Asian politics and diplomacy at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), the organizer of the Shangri-La Dialogue, told the BBC World Service: “Southeast Asia and the wider Pacific region are There is concern about what China is doing in the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait, but there are also concerns about what the United States and its allies are trying to do by establishing these mechanisms we often call minilaterals, such as the Quad— — that is, Japan, India, Australia and the United States — and the AUKUS agreement between the United States, Australia and the United Kingdom, under which they will also build nuclear-powered submarines.”

“I believe this will also be one of the topics of dialogue.”

Since the beginning of this year, Sino-U.S. relations have been turbulent again due to the balloon turmoil. Before that, they had been tense over Taiwan and trade issues for a long time.

On the eve of the opening of the Shangri-La Dialogue, Taipei and Washington signed the first batch of agreements on the “21st Century Trade Initiative” on Thursday (1st). China said on Friday that it was “strongly dissatisfied and has lodged solemn representations with the US side.”

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Mao Ning said that the signing of this agreement “is the latest example of the one-China principle being hollowed out by the United States” and demanded that the United States “stop advancing and immediately withdraw the so-called ‘initiative’ and agreement, and stop sending any messages to the ‘Taiwan independence’ separatist forces.” The wrong signal, otherwise the consequences must be fully borne by the US side.”

Coupled with Washington and Beijing’s accusation by the US this week of Chinese fighter jets “provoking” US surveillance planes in the South China Sea, the US-China relationship on the eve of the dialogue can be described as chilly.

Richard Betts, visiting senior fellow for national security affairs at the Council on Foreign Relations, told BBC TV news: “Both countries are concerned with avoiding direct conflict – there’s no doubt about it. They want to avoid war for many obvious reasons – but there is no clear or obvious way to solve the Taiwan problem.”

Bates said that China also wanted to keep the Taiwan issue on the back burner, but there has been a recent change. Taiwan is not an independent country, but it is protected by the United States to some extent. Washington must face the reality that the strategy for dealing with the Taiwan Strait issue is not easy.

After the Pentagon announced on Monday (May 29) that Li Shangfu refused to meet with Austin, the spokesperson of the Chinese Ministry of National Defense, Colonel Tan Kefei, said on Tuesday (31st): “Dialogue cannot be without principles, and communication cannot be without a bottom line. The current difficulties in exchanges between the two militaries , the responsibility lies entirely with the US side.”

Ahead of the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore on Thursday from Tokyo, Austin said it was “unfortunate” that China refused to meet. “I think there should be a constant dialogue between the Departments of Defense, or a communication channel should be established.”

The Global Times, a tabloid under the People’s Daily of the Communist Party of China, quoted a “Chinese scholar” on Friday as saying: “Just like the role played by the United States in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the United States has been making troubles in the Asia-Pacific in an attempt to disrupt the region and Take advantage of it.”

“However, the United States never wants to have a direct conflict with a major country. It is afraid of misfires, so the United States keeps provoking troubles while verbally claiming to ‘communicate’ with China.”

Alan Connelly, a senior fellow at the British Institute for International Strategic Studies, believes that the tension in Sino-US relations will not cast a shadow over the entire forum.

Connelly told the BBC: “By bringing both the US and China to Southeast Asia to make a statement, it forces them to think a little bit about what the region wants the region to be and what they can do to ease tensions. “

At the Group of Seven (G7) summit in Japan held in May, U.S. President Joe Biden predicted that Sino-U.S. relations are expected to unfreeze, and Washington is also “negotiating” to lift sanctions against Li Shangfu.

G7 leaders also said in a joint statement that countries want to seek to reduce the risk (de-risk) in their relations with China rather than decouple with China (de-couple).

But Dr Lynn Kuok, a senior researcher on Asia-Pacific security affairs, also from the British International Institute for Strategic Studies, told Reuters that she was not optimistic about the improvement of US-China relations.

“What we should be focusing on here is putting up guardrails to prevent the rivalry from spiraling into an open all-out conflict. But I think China also has doubts (about the guardrails).”

Yang Nianzu, the former Minister of National Defense of Taiwan who attended the meeting, pointed out to Taiwan Central News Agency that he expected Li Shangfu to express China’s position on the Taiwan issue and explain China’s security strategic blueprint in his speech. I believe Austin will also reiterate that China is a troublemaker that changes the world order; Both sides will have more tit-for-tat words.

Singapore’s “Straits Times” quoted Dr. Zhuang Jiaying, an associate professor of the Department of Political Science at the National University of Singapore, as saying that continuing to support Ukraine’s anti-war efforts, controlling North Korea’s and Iran’s weapons and missile programs, and how to deal with the spillover effects of Myanmar’s civil war will all be the focus of this Shangri-La Dialogue. Focus.

Compared with China and the United States “passing by”, South Korean Defense Minister Lee Jong-seop will meet with Lee Sang-bok during the dialogue. According to Yonhap News Agency, the South Korean side will clearly point out at the meeting that North Korea’s nuclear and missile provocations have seriously damaged regional peace and stability, and call on China to play a constructive role in urging North Korea to restrain its provocations.

North Korea failed to launch a spy satellite on Wednesday (31st). On the eve of the dialogue meeting, the official Korean Central News Agency issued a document warning to “raise vigilance” against the activities of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in the Asia-Pacific region. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg’s condemnation of the North Korean satellite launch is the origin of this article.

The article said: “If my country’s military reconnaissance satellite launch worries NATO, it clearly shows NATO’s insidious intention to wait for an opportunity to intervene in the affairs of the Asia-Pacific region on the grounds of the unwarranted ‘North Korea threat’.”

“The establishment of representative offices of NATO, Japan, and South Korea, and joint cyber training, which have recently become increasingly active, serve as representative evidence that the military collusion of aggressive forces in the Atlantic and Pacific has entered the stage of full-scale implementation.”

“If NATO continues to try to violate the sovereignty and security interests of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, we will treat NATO as an opponent like the United States.”

In May this year, Japan confirmed that NATO will set up a liaison office in Tokyo in July, but at the same time clarified that Japan has no intention of applying to join NATO. In addition to North Korea, China also expressed dissatisfaction with the establishment of an office.

Chen Youhua, an assistant professor of Chinese studies at Japan’s International Education University (Akita International University), told BBC Chinese earlier that the interaction between Japan and NATO is at least in the short term more symbolic than substantive.

Richard Bates, a visiting senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, commented to the BBC that North Korea’s nuclear weapons and its own “crazy” qualities make it difficult for the United States to deal with. But the United States needs to reassure its allies of their long-term commitment to South Korea. The deployment of additional U.S. soldiers in South Korea and the deployment of defense resources to the region are ways to demonstrate such assurances.