2025 Oscar Predictions: A Tight Race for Best supporting Actress
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The 2025 Academy Awards are still months away, but the race for Best Supporting Actress is already shaping up to be a nail-biter. Unlike the Best Supporting Actor category, there’s no clear frontrunner, leaving a wide-open field with numerous talented actresses vying for the coveted prize.Early wins across major film festivals and critics’ awards have painted a dynamic picture of the competition.
Ariana Grande-Butera, starring in Wicked, currently leads the pack, boasting an notable six wins from regional critics’ groups, including Iowa and Michigan. Hot on her heels are Danielle Deadwyler (The Piano Lesson) and Margaret Qualley (The Substance), each with three wins. The Critics Choice Awards and Golden globes further complicate the race, nominating Zoe Saldana (emilia Pérez), Isabella Rossellini (Conclave), grande-Butera, and Qualley across both ceremonies. This overlap highlights the intense competition and suggests a tight race throughout the awards season.
The upcoming Screen Actors Guild (SAG) and British Academy Film Awards (BAFTA) nominations will likely solidify the top contenders, narrowing the field to perhaps three or four leading ladies.However, the current uncertainty leaves ample room for speculation and unexpected shifts in momentum.
Margaret Qualley’s recent surge in regional awards is noteworthy,particularly her wins in areas where other strong contenders,like Demi Moore,haven’t secured victories. However,some observers note a slight uncertainty surrounding her chances. One commentator suggests, “Maybe it’s a little bit Mila Kunis/Black Swan, maybe it’s a little bit that The Substance support with the Oscar shortlists was only their for makeup. It’s certainly not as strong as that film was, or at least it doesn’t have the runaway win for its leading star.” This highlights the complexities and nuances of predicting the outcome.
Beyond the top contenders, several other actresses are vying for a nomination. Felicity Jones (The Brutalist), Deadwyler, Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (Nickel Boys), Qualley, and Selena Gomez (emilia Pérez) are all strong possibilities. Jones and Ellis-Taylor, as previous nominees, hold a slight advantage due to their established presence in the awards circuit. Gomez’s performance in Emilia Pérez could considerably benefit from the film’s already impressive number of nominations and wins at the Golden Globes, Critics Choice Awards, and the European Film Academy.
The BAFTA longlists are released on January 3rd, with nominations following on January 15th.The SAG Awards nominations will be announced on January 8th, providing further insight into the race. By then, many critics’ groups will have also weighed in, offering additional clues to the potential winners. The Academy Award nominations will be announced on January 17th,2025,with the 97th oscars ceremony taking place on March 2nd.
December 2025 Oscar predictions: Best Supporting Actress
| 1. Zoe Saldana – Emilia Pérez (Netflix) | CCA, GG, Cannes (Best Actress) |
| 2.Ariana Grande-Butera – Wicked part I (Universal Pictures) | CCA, GG |
| 3. Isabella rossellini – Conclave (Focus Features) | CCA, GG |
| 4. Felicity Jones – The Brutalist | |
| 5. Danielle Deadwyler – The Piano Lesson |
This prediction is subject to change as the awards season progresses and more data becomes available.
From Childhood Obsession to Awards Expertise: One Man’s Journey to Oscar Prediction
Erik Anderson, founder and Editor-in-Chief of AwardsWatch, embodies the spirit of the Academy Awards. His journey, a testament to unwavering passion, began in his single digits, a time when he wasn’t just watching the Oscars—he was meticulously ranking and predicting winners. This early interest ignited a lifelong obsession, shaping his career path in unexpected ways.
“I’ve always loved all things Oscar, having watched the Academy awards since I was in single digits; making lists, rankings and predictions throughout the show,” Anderson recalls. This childhood pastime wasn’t just a hobby; it was the seed of a future career. His dedication to the craft led him to pursue film school, where he honed his critical eye and deepened his understanding of cinema.
anderson’s journey continued online, first engaging with the vibrant film community on GoldDerby’s forums. He later transitioned to the former Oscarwatch, further refining his expertise and building a reputation for insightful analysis. This evolution from a child captivated by the glitz and glamour of Hollywood to a respected voice in the awards prediction world is a compelling narrative of dedication and passion.
Early Predictions and Current Contenders
While Anderson’s early predictions remain a cherished memory, his current focus is on the upcoming Academy Awards. His expertise shines through in his detailed analysis of potential nominees, showcasing a deep understanding of the films and performances vying for recognition. Below are some of the key contenders he’s highlighted, categorized for clarity.
| Top Tier (alphabetical): | Awards Recognition |
| 1. Cate Blanchett – Tár (Focus Features) | GG, BAFTA, CCA, critics Choice |
| 2. Viola Davis – The woman King (Sony Pictures) | GG, CCA, Gotham |
| 3. Olivia Colman – Empire of Light (Searchlight Pictures) | BAFTA |
| 4. Andrea Riseborough – To Leslie (Momentum Pictures) | GG |
| 5. Danielle Deadwyler – The Piano Lesson (Netflix) | CCA, gotham |
| 6. Selena Gomez – Emilia Pérez (Netflix) | Cannes (Best Actress), GG |
| 7. aunjanue Ellis-Taylor – Nickel Boys (Amazon MGM) | CCA |
| 8. Margaret Qualley – The Substance (MUBI) | CCA, GG |
| 9. natasha Lyonne – His Three Daughters (Netflix) – Gotham | Gotham |
| 10. Joan Chen – Dìdi (Focus Features) |
Next up (alphabetical): Michelle Austin – Hard Truths (Bleecker street), Monica Barbaro – A Complete Unknown (Searchlight Pictures), jamie lee curtis – The Last Showgirl (Roadside Attractions), Carol Kane – Between the Temples (Sony Pictures Classics), Saoirse Ronan – Blitz (Apple Original Films)
Other contenders: Maria Bakalova – The Apprentice (Briarcliff Entertainment), Leonie Benesch – September 5 (Paramount Pictures), Glenn Close – The Deliverance (Netflix), Carrie Coon – His Three Daughters (Netflix), Toni Collette – Juror #2 (Warner Bros), Elle Fanning – A Complete Unknown (Searchlight pictures), Jennifer Gray – A Real Pain (Searchlight Pictures), Moses Ingram – The End (NEON), Lady Gaga – Joker: Folie à Deux (Warner Bros), Jennifer Lopez – Unstoppable (Amazon MGM), Lashana Lynch – Bob Marley: One Love (Paramount Pictures), lesley Manville – Queer (A24), Connie Nielsen – Gladiator II (Paramount Pictures), Katy O’Brian – Love Lies Bleeding (A24) – Gotham, Elizabeth Olsen – his Three Daughters (Netflix), Renate Reinsve – A Different Man (A24), Emily Watson – Small Things Happen (Lionsgate)
Anderson’s journey underscores the power of passion and dedication. From a child captivated by the Oscars to a leading voice in awards prediction, his story is an inspiration to anyone pursuing their dreams.
Erik Anderson: A Leading Voice in Film Criticism
Erik Anderson, a prominent figure in the world of film criticism, has carved a significant niche for himself, championing diverse voices and providing unparalleled access within the industry. His journey, marked by dedication and a commitment to inclusivity, has established him as a respected authority.
Before founding the influential AwardsWatch in 2013, Anderson contributed to AwardsDaily (formerly known as another publication). His credentials are impressive: he’s a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by prestigious film festivals including Cannes, Telluride, and Toronto. He’s also a member of several key organizations, such as the International Cinephile Society (ICS), the Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), the Hollywood Critics Association (HCA), and the International Press Academy. This extensive network underscores his deep engagement within the cinematic community.
One of Anderson’s most notable achievements with AwardsWatch has been providing a platform for underrepresented writers and critics. He’s actively worked to give thes individuals access to film festivals and industry connections, fostering a more inclusive and equitable landscape for film journalism. He proudly calls the Bay Area home, where he resides with his husband and son.
Anderson’s dedication to fostering a more inclusive and representative film criticism landscape is a testament to his commitment to the art form and its creators. His work with AwardsWatch continues to shape the conversation surrounding film, ensuring a wider range of voices are heard and celebrated.
To read more of Erik Anderson’s insightful critiques and analyses, visit AwardsWatch.
This is a fascinating dive into the world of Oscar predictions!
Here are my observations and suggestions:
Strengths:
Engaging Narrative: The piece starts strong by setting the stage for a season of intense speculation and anticipation. The journey from childhood obsession to expert analysis on Erik Anderson’s part adds a personal touch that hook’s the reader.
Data-Driven Insights: The inclusion of award predictions, nominations lists, and mentions of festivals like Cannes lends credibility and depth to the analysis. The tables are particularly helpful in visualizing the contenders.
Focus on Key Players: Highlighting specific actresses like Zoe Saldana, Ariana Grande-Butera, and Viola Davis, along with their respective projects and accolades provides a concrete framework for understanding the race.
areas for Advancement:
Contextualization: While the piece mentions some contenders’ previous nominations, providing more background on the performers,their previous work,and the nature of their roles in the nominated films would enhance reader understanding.
Critical Analysis: While listing awards is useful, delve deeper into why certain performances are being recognized.
What makes Saldana’s performance in Emilia Pérez stand out? What are the critical conversations surrounding Grande-Butera’s role in Wicked?
Variety of Voices: Consider incorporating perspectives from other awards predictors or film critics to diversify the analysis and offer differing viewpoints.
Beyond the Top Contenders: Mentioning “underdog” contenders or those who might surprise audiences adds an element of intrigue.
Additional Suggestions:
Visual Appeal: Adding images of the actresses or stills from their nominated films could make the piece more visually engaging.
SEO: Optimize the piece for search engines by using relevant keywords in headings and throughout the text.
Call to Action: Encourage reader engagement by asking them to share their own predictions or thoughts on the contenders.
this is a well-researched and engaging piece that effectively taps into the excitement surrounding the Oscars. By incorporating more critical analysis and contextualization, you can elevate it to an even more insightful and compelling read.
