[2024 미국 대선] ‘Election tweezers’ statistician changes victory rate to ‘Harris advantage’

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U.S. Democratic presidential candidate Vice President Kamala Harris is speaking at a campaign rally held in Philadelphia on the 27th of last month (local time). AFP Yonhap News

With the U.S. presidential election counting beginning at 7 PM on the 5th (local time, 9 AM on the 6th), a major prediction model changed the winner from Republican candidate former President Donald Trump to Democratic candidate Vice President Kamala Harris.

The British weekly magazine The Economist’s presidential election prediction model predicted Vice President Harris’s winning rate at 56% and former President Trump’s at 43%. The Economist predicted that Vice President Harris would secure 276 of the 538 electoral votes allocated to the 50 U.S. states and the capital Washington, while Trump would secure only 262. The magic number needed to enter the White House is 270.

The Economist previously said the two candidates’ chances of winning were ’50-50′ and predicted that former President Trump would win. Then, “the prediction model reacted sharply to some of the latest data,” and changed the winner’s prediction for the day again.

ABC’s election analysis site 538 calculated the winning percentages of Vice President Harris and former President Trump as 50% and 49%, respectively, as of 6 a.m. on this day. Previously, 538 revealed that former President Trump’s winning percentage was slightly higher than that of Vice President Harris.

Nate Silver, a statistician known as the ‘US presidential election tweezers’, also overturned his prediction at the last minute that former President Trump would be the leading candidate. He previously predicted that former President Trump’s winning percentage (51.5%) was higher than that of Vice President Harris (48.1%), and in his recent forecast, he said, “After 80,000 simulations, Harris has a 50% chance of defeating Trump (49.6%) in the Electoral College votes.” “I will press on and be elected,” he said.

Real Clear Politics (RCP), which compiles the average of public opinion polls, announced that from the 10th of last month to the 4th, Vice President Harris’ approval rating (48.7%) was higher than that of former President Trump (48.6%).

However, RCP said that if third-party candidates are included, Vice President Harris’ average approval rating is 47.2%, falling behind former President Trump (47.3%). Even in the average of the seven battleground states, former President Trump’s approval rating (48.5%) still surpassed Vice President Harris’s (47.7%).

Previously, RCP announced that former President Trump (48.5%) was ahead of Vice President Harris (48.4%) based on the average of opinion polls published from the 11th of last month to the 3rd.