2024 is set to be a year of unprecedented political action around the world, with more than 60 countries around the world holding general elections. To find new leaders who will take control of the country and solve problems both internally and abroad.
In the next few months Going out to exercise the right to use the voice of more than half the world’s people It may affect the balance of power and the direction of global politics. that it will move along the path of democracy or step into authoritarian territory
VOA keeps an eye on 6 important election battles in 2024 that will determine the fate of the world.
United States
Population: 340.8 million people
GDP in 2022: 25.46 Trillion dollars
Beginning in the late 19th century and through World War II, American foreign policy shifted from isolation to one that actively contributed to the global order.
In the view of former U.S. Assistant Secretary of Defense Joseph S. Nye Jr., this is important in understanding the differences between competing global perspectives. Because former President Donald Trump’s America First policy is an attempt to bring back the idea of not being dependent on other countries. This may cause U.S. allies to Falling into a worse situation Amid geopolitical tensions between Taiwan and China Russia and Ukraine and Israel and Hamas.
In the past, former President Trump Who is expected to be the representative of the Republican Party in the presidential race? has attacked NATO The United States’ most important military ally He has also never made clear whether he supports Israel’s war against Hamas if he is re-elected as the country’s leader.
The former assistant secretary of defense of the United States added, “On the Russian issue[ทรัมป์]It is more likely to benefit Putin. This means that pressure to reduce support for Ukraine is likely to increase.”
On the other side, President Joe Biden, the current US leader from the Democratic Party which has poll results indicating that this year’s election will be a decisive match between him and Trump. It has sent military aid to Ukraine and Israel. Despite facing pressure from Republican MPs and Senators On the issue of progress in Ukraine’s war and from within his party on the humanitarian crisis in Gaza.
Candidates for the leadership of the United States Each has a different perspective on America’s position on the world stage. And whoever wins this November’s election could determine whether the United States How to take a tough stance on China, Russia and other international rivalries next?
Taiwan
Population: 23.9 million people
GDP in 2022: 760,400 million dollars
Taiwan’s influence on the world economy is larger than its area. By being the king of semiconductor manufacturing They account for more than 70% of the world’s chips, and about 90% of advanced chips are produced by Taiwanese companies. The question of Taiwan’s independence from China has remained a point of tension between Beijing and Washington. As a result, Taiwan’s elections will be closely watched by many countries.
Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen has completed his term and will no longer be able to run for Taiwan’s leadership in January’s elections. has issued a warning to the public that China is spreading disinformation online. To compete for votes from the favorite, Taiwan Vice President Lai Qingde from the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). and is considered by China to be a person who wants to divide the country. His rivals take a softer stance on China.
America has been one of Taiwan’s top allies in the past, while China has increased its maritime activities in the South China Sea. which President Biden Pledge that the United States will protect Taiwan if invaded Former President Trump has taken an ambivalent position on Taiwan as well as Israel and Ukraine.
However, some analysts expressed concern that Tensions between China and Taiwan could escalate into war. If representatives from the DPP party win
Yun Sun, director of the China program at the Stimson Center, a think tank in Washington. told VOA that the United States was discouraging Lai from escalating the situation between Taiwan and China. and that China prioritizes stability over potential conflict. While China is dealing with the sluggish domestic economy.
Sun added, “[ประธานาธิบดีจีน] Xi Jinping has much more important things to do,” in terms of the policies the Chinese Communist Party must focus on this year. But that does not mean China and Taiwan will be in a better position over the next four years under Lai’s leadership. which China views as “not working”
In his New Year’s speech, President Xi Jinping pledged that China and Taiwan would “Definitely back together,” without giving a specific time frame. CIA Director William Burns has warned that the United States knows “in terms of intelligence” that President Xi is aiming to “Prepare by 2027 for a successful attack.”
Russia
Population: 144 million people
GDP in 2022: $2.24 trillion
At the start of the Ukraine war nearly two years ago, Kiev’s allies slammed together economic sanctions on Russia. which affects the Russian economy and push Moscow closer to Beijing, becoming a top trading partner.
Under the conditions of inflation in Russia Analysts believe Russian President Vladimir Putin will not be ousted this year. During the period when President Putin’s political opponents were imprisoned, expelled from the country, disappeared, or died for unknown reasons.
Sergey Radchenko, a professor of former Soviet history at Johns Hopkins University, told VO that “Elections in Russia are tightly controlled,” and if Putin wins another six years in office, the Kremlin government will move forward. “Harsh policies towards Ukraine and increasing authoritarian policies in the country.”
But when it comes to the question of how successful Putin will be in the Ukraine war, It depends on who will lead the United States.
Radchenko added that if Biden were to continue, he would “continue his path to victory for Ukraine through military assistance.” “If Trump comes to power The real question is whether he will concede on the Ukraine issue. And open the way for conflict resolution on Russian terms or not?”
While Trump allies in the US House of Representatives Starting to lose patience with the delay in the Ukrainian war that is not progressing anywhere. “Putin is still interested in playing games with the United States. and with Western European allies further.”
Congress previously passed the bill in December. Give senators the power to vote in favor. Before the United States will withdraw from NATO That means If Trump wins a second term He will no longer be able to unilaterally take America out of this military alliance. From what he had threatened about this all along. But still Trump’s distrust of NATO will continue to create chaos and division in the West. This is something that Putin sees as beneficial to him.
European Union
Population: 448 million people
GDP in 2022: $17.458 trillion
The European Union also heads to elections this June. and big policies that have been watched like anti-immigrant and reducing its role in Russian and Chinese issues. It is pushing the European Parliament towards becoming more conservative.
Now Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission. He has not yet announced his candidacy for office again this year. To stall power in the European Parliament, von der Leyen has been steadfast in supporting Ukraine and pressing China’s leaders to address trade imbalances with Europe.
If von der Leyen is re-elected It will be considered a balancing force in an increasingly populist EU, working in all dimensions to balance the differences and conflicting interests of its member states. with the firm goal of dealing with Russia
Ivana Karaskova, EU Commissioner for Transparency told VOA that EU countries are wary of “Put China and Russia in the same dictatorship basket” over fears the EU will be drawn into another chaotic trade war.
The European Union under von der Leyen was careful to keep China out. This is despite questions over China’s role in helping Russia evade Western sanctions. But what will we see in this year’s elections? It will decide to what extent von der Leyen’s pro-Ukraine policy will be pressured. Meanwhile, Ukraine is moving closer to EU membership.
India
Population: 1,430 million people
GDP in 2022: 3.385 Trillion dollars
Critics of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) say religious minorities face widespread persecution. Meanwhile, Modi’s Hindu nationalist agenda has gained attention. Violence against Sikhs and Indian Muslims has therefore become more common.
And the issue is not limited to India only. The Modi government has been accused of assassinating foreign Sikhs in Toronto last summer. and the failed assassination plot against another Sikh activist in New York in November. Those scandals have shaken India’s diplomatic relations with the West.
However, the former US assistant secretary of defense expects that India and the US Won’t let the relationship falter. What holds the two nations together is concern over China’s growing influence on the world stage.
As the world’s largest liberal democracy, India has proven itself to be a regional counterbalance to China and North Korea. The former assistant secretary of defense of the United States stated, “I don’t think the United States What will be done to undermine relations with India,” whether under Biden or Trump? The two leaders maintain close ties with India as they play an important role in promoting democracy in Asia. Even though the Modi government has edged closer to dictatorship on several occasions,
Morning Consult data shows Modi has a staggering approval rating of 77% and is in line to secure a third term in office for another five years when Indian polls open in April. which if he wins Modi will build strong ties with the US. Either with Trump or Biden next.
South Africa
Population: 62 million people
GDP in 2022: $405.8 billion
South Africa’s ruling party is in its most unstable period since 1994, when then-President Nelson Mandela was re-elected. and his African National Congress (ANC) party ended apartheid. and pave the way for a new era of majority rule. Now, for the first time in three decades, the ANC is at risk of losing its majority in the legislature. If you want to stay in power It is likely that they will be forced to form a coalition with other parties.
South Africa is perhaps the most industrialized city in Africa. But it has not been able to withstand the economic impact of the post-COVID era like many other parts of the world, with unemployment at around one-third of the country’s population. and the problem of electricity shortages occurring throughout the country Young South Africans are turning their backs on the ANC despite President Cyril Ramaphosa’s pledge to rid his party of graft problems.
Daniel Silke, South African political analyst told VOA that the ANC is likely to remain in government for another five years, but that if South Africa’s main opposition Democratic Alliance (DA) sweeps its distant victory, there could be “improvements in There is a strong connection between South Africa and the West.”
But if the ANC, which has close ties to Russia and China, continues to hold power? It will pave the way for further strengthening of relations between China and Russia. There is a huge opportunity for China to play a role with the South African government in energy, logistics and communications infrastructure, given that China is an important investor in South Africa and other developing countries around the world through the Belt and Road Initiative.
But whether China will increase its role in South Africa or not, or whether the United States will be able to play an economic role in South Africa or not, remains to be seen. The future depends on the decision of South Africans to enter the polls with the right candidate in this year’s election.
- Source: VOA
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2024-01-08 22:53:48
