US presidential election scheduled to be held at the end of this year It will be the issue that creates the greatest political risk for the world in 2024, whether Biden or Trump wins. It is clear that the democratic institutions of this most powerful country will come under attack. This is the Eurasia Group’s prediction released on Monday (January 8).
In its annual forecast, the Eurasia Group, a political risk consulting firm headquartered in New York, said the US presidential election on November 5 this year It will be a test of American democracy on a scale the country has not seen in 150 years, that is, since America’s Civil War.
The report describes America as an advanced industrialized democratic country. which is already the most divided and dysfunctional place in the world And elections later this year will only make this problem worse no matter which candidate gets into the White House.
“While the outcome of the election is arguably 50-50 (at least for the time being), the only thing that is certain is that social ties political institutions And America’s standing on the world stage will continue to be damaged.”
The report states that if Donald Trump is the favorite to be the Republican candidate, Losing to President Joe Biden once again, it is highly likely that the real estate tycoon will come forward with another allegation of massive election fraud. and provoked a widespread campaign to intimidate officials and those organizing the elections.
Meanwhile, America under a second Biden administration may face an unprecedented political crisis. If Trump is jailed for one of the many crimes The case being prosecuted Although it remains unlikely that widespread violence will occur.
Biden is trying to paint a picture of that in his election campaign. He is campaigning to protect democracy from Trump. Supporters of the former president stormed the U.S. Capitol in Washington on Jan. 6, 2021, in an attempt to stop the official certification of Biden’s victory.
In the event that he is defeated Biden is expected to accept the election results. But many Democrats will continue to view Trump as a leader who did not come to office legitimately. And some may reject Trump’s victory, citing a constitutional provision that prohibits those who “Involved in the uprising” of the presidential inauguration, the Eurasia Group said.
At the same time, it is expected that the Trump administration 2 will try to use the US government “as a weapon” to chase down enemy bills and crush dissenters.
In addition to the election in the United States The Eurasia Group report ranks violence in the Middle East as the second most important risk to the world, saying war between Israel and Hamas is now likely. It will be only the first phase of a conflict that will spread further into 2024.
The third major risk is Ukraine. This report predicts that by 2024, Ukraine will be divided into pieces. with Kiev working hard to regain control of what was seized by Russia.
The report also said that Ukraine will face another major blow. If Americans choose Trump which opposes the United States injecting tens of thousands of aid funds million dollars to Kiev
(Source: AFP)
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2024-01-09 17:57:00
