2024 Report: Netherlands Can Achieve Climate Neutrality by 2050, But Controversial Measures at Risk

• Rolf Schuttenhelm

  Climate editor

The Netherlands can be completely climate neutral by 2050. But that feasibility is at serious risk if we eliminate or even postpone controversial measures. This is what the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL) says in a new calculation.

More than thirty paths to climate neutrality were calculated for all important sectors. The PBL calls it their ‘flag’. Together with background reports, it is about a thousand pages.

“It’s a big job,” PBL director Marko Hekkert told NOS. “We only have 25 years left to achieve this. Any delay you allow yourself will make it very costly or impossible. So the main thing now is to keep going – we are like- have already seen the crisis in recent years.”

Hekkert’s concern is short-term thinking. Some measures that help to achieve the 2030 climate target (55 percent less greenhouse gases than in 1990) could stagnate in the long term. An example is heating houses with hydrogen.

“The department says: natural gas pipelines are good – until we put hydrogen in them. But if you look at the whole system, we need that hydrogen elsewhere, and heat pumps seem to be for much better heating. So for the policy we are still doing: put on the glasses 2050.”

The PBL has explored the most cost-effective scenarios, against relatively small changes in production and consumption. “We don’t assume there are large-scale behavioral changes in the study,” says lead author Bart Strengers. His conclusion: it is not only possible, but also affordable. “These are not astronomical amounts. It is mostly about a transition that we have to go through. It requires large investments and fair distribution – but that does not mean high net costs. “

By 2050, it will be necessary to produce at least three to five times as much electricity in the Netherlands as it is now, from wind, solar and possibly some nuclear energy. Thanks to this extra electricity, road traffic, heating and industry can stop using fossil fuels.

Hydrogen plays an important role in this too – to absorb peaks in electricity supply and demand. According to PBL, we will produce most of that hydrogen in the Netherlands ourselves. According to the planning group, it is necessary that different investments are made in parallel, and that there is no “waiting” for progress in other places.

Two difficult sectors that cannot be electrified are shipping and aviation. Shipping could switch to biofuel or ammonia, and aviation to biokerosene and synthetic kerosene.

We also have to produce this alternative aviation fuel ourselves (on a large scale) in the Netherlands. CO2 is released during production and if we store it underground, more CO2 will be removed from the atmosphere than released.

These negative emissions will then be needed for the most difficult sector to stabilize: agriculture. In the Netherlands, it now emits 23 million tonnes of greenhouse gases per year (15 percent of the total).

That will still be between 9 and 12 million tons in 2050. This assumes that there is a reduction in the number of livestock, according to the nitrogen policy. The remaining emissions from agriculture must therefore be compensated for especially in 2050.

Many other reports assume that such negative emissions can be created by burning biomass for electricity and storing the released CO2 underground.

The PBL sees this differently: excessive growth in demand can lead to shortages and sustainability problems, including deforestation. Biomass should therefore only be used for high-value applications, such as raw material for bioplastics and construction, and biofuel for transport sectors that cannot produce electricity.

Storing CO2 underground is not an excuse for using fossil fuels on a large scale. According to the report, only a very small part of fossil fuels can be offset by CO2 storage in 2050.

The report takes population growth as a given and assumes moderate growth (one to two million more people in 2050). This requires 1.4 million additional homes between 2020 and 2050. The actual number of buildings in the Dutch landscape is growing almost twice as fast, due to a relative increase in buildings for the service sector.

But the State Commission for Demographic Developments showed that population growth was in practice significantly lower or higher can, according to immigration. If more people are added before 2050, it will be harder and easier if growth is lower, Hekkert admits. In addition to agriculture and house building, the scarce space in the Netherlands is needed for additional forests.

Making lifestyles more sustainable can make the job a lot easier. According to PBL, further research is needed in this area; it is not included in this report. However, according to the design group, it is essential that we consume much less net energy. Only then will the additional CO2-free electricity be sufficient to replace fossil fuels.

These savings come from good coverage in all homes and other buildings, says Bert Daniels, the second lead author. “But it’s also in new technology. For example, heat pumps consume a third to a quarter of gas heat energy and an electric car is about three times more efficient than a comparable combustion car.”

In the end it’s a very simple story, Hekkert concludes. “All stability must be maximized. You can’t do anything wrong, as long as you’re expanding.”