JAKARTA, KOMPAS.com – The Indonesian Poltracking survey estimates that the presidential-vice presidential candidate pair number 2 Prabowo Subianto-Gibran Rakabuming Raka will receive quite a large number of votes if their two competitors, namely Anies Baswedan-Muhaimin Iskandar and Ganjar Pranowo-Mahfud MD, do not qualify for the second round of the presidential election ( Presidential Election) 2024.
Poltracking Executive Director Hanta Yuda AR created a simulation of 3 scenarios for the 2024 presidential election from the results of a survey conducted on 29 November-5 December 2023.
From this survey, Poltracking estimates that the 2024 presidential election will last 2 rounds because there are no presidential or vice presidential candidates who can achieve electability above 50 percent plus 1 as required in Law Number 7 of 2017 concerning Elections.
Also read: Median Survey: PDI-P High Electability in Java, Gerindra Outside Java
“For those who failed in the first round, Prabowo-Gibran, the map was Anies-Cak Imin 33.9 percent, Ganjar-Mahfud 37.5 percent and those who did not determine the choice were even higher,” said Hanta when presenting the results of the survey “The Influence of Jokowi and Voter Mitigation on Latest Electoral Map” which was presented streaming via the Poltracking TV channel on YouTube on Monday (11/12/2023).
In the simulation, Hanta also predicted that if the pair of candidates who qualify for the second round are Prabowo-Gibran and Anies-Muhaimin, then it is likely that the majority of Ganjar-Mahfud voters will switch to supporting Prabowo-Gibran.
If it is simulated that pair number 1 Anies-Muhaimin and pair number 3 Ganjar-Mahfud qualify for the second round, then it is predicted that around 19.8 percent of Prabowo-Gibran voters will choose Anies-Muhaimin, and around 20 will choose Ganjar-Mahfud. 4 percent.
Then, if it is simulated that the Prabowo-Gibran and Ganjar-Mahfud pairs qualify for the second round, it is estimated that 30.9 percent of Anies-Muhaimin voters will choose Prabowo-Gibran.
Apart from that, from the scenario above, it is also predicted that around 10.7 percent of Anies-Muhaimin voters will choose Ganjar-Mahfud.
“In a two-round scenario, the Prabowo Subianto-Gibran Rakabuming Raka pair is relatively superior to all the candidates,” said Hanta.
“Anies Baswedan-Muhaimin Iskandar will advance to the second round if they are able to gain momentum to increase the electability trend, while Ganjar Pranowo-Mahfud Md will enter the second round if they are able to rebound,” continued Hanta.
Also read: Median Survey: Prabowo-Gibran 37 Percent, Ganjar-Mahfud 26.7 Percent, Anies-Muhaimin 25.4 Percent
Indonesian Poltracking Research Director Arya Budi said the survey used a multistage random sampling method involving 1,220 respondents and was carried out by face-to-face interviews.
He said the margin of error from the survey was around 2.9 percent with a confidence level of 95 percent.
The respondents involved were Indonesian citizens who already had the right to vote, namely aged 17 years or over or married.
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2023-12-11 14:37:00
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