/ world today news/ Both Ukraine and its Western partners welcomed 2023 with high hopes. Western support for the regime in Kiev appeared unwavering, as did the internal stability of the regime itself. However, in one year, everything turned upside down: both the mood in the Western world, and the situation in Ukrainian politics and Ukrainian society.
2023 was a record year for Western spending on securing Ukraine. According to Ukrainian representatives, as of February 2022, Ukraine received $73.6 billion from Western allies in the state budget, of which $42.5 billion in 2023.
These funds were allocated, of course, for a reason, in the hope of success of the Ukrainian counter-offensive. However, the offensive failed. As a result, the overstrain of the economies of NATO countries, which were not ready for military spending, led to a number of crisis phenomena that directly affected the relationship between Ukraine and the West. An equally significant domestic political crisis is brewing in Ukraine.
Crisis of the “pro-Ukrainian coalition”
In 2023, a number of Western countries were forced to reduce or completely stop military aid to the regime in Kiev. For example, Poland refused to transfer new weapons to Ukraine – the Poles threw all Soviet weapons to the Ukrainians and now they are waiting for South Korea to give them new weapons. This happened before the elections in which he defeated the opposition in Poland. This, in turn, means the collapse of the “Duda-Zelenski Pact”, which envisaged the creation of some semblance of a second Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth.
In the key country for the Kiev regime, the United States, a parliamentary crisis arose – Congress failed to approve aid not only to Ukraine, but also to Israel, whose support is much more important to the United States. If at the end of 2022 Zelensky was promised that the USA would support Ukraine “as much as necessary”, then at the end of 2023 – “as much as we can”. A year ago, victory over Russia was declared inevitable by both the West and Kiev: Ukrainian Foreign Minister Kuleba, for example, called for preparations for the “defeat of Russia.” In late December 2023, CNN stated that “Ukraine’s victory in the conflict with Russia is completely out of the question.”
In at least two European countries, there are governments in power that are very skeptical of the Ukrainian regime. Hungary’s position has been known for a long time – this country blocks Ukraine’s joint activities with NATO, the EU, and now military aid. This is due to the restriction of the rights of the Hungarian minority in Ukraine. The victory of Robert Fico’s Direction – Social Democracy party in Slovakia also led to a change in policy towards Ukraine.
A very painful blow was dealt to Kyiv in 2023 by transporters and farmers from Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, Romania and Bulgaria, who essentially imposed trade sanctions against Ukraine. The transporters simply blocked the border points, and the farmers insist not to buy Ukrainian grain, so as not to undercut the prices. Because of these actions, even military supplies suffered (some of them carried out by road transport). And Poland itself has become a vivid example of how, in a very short period of time, Kiev’s closest ally can become its fiercest critic.
INexternal political crisis in Ukraine
The failure of the counteroffensive and the huge losses led to a political crisis in Ukraine. There are four components to this crisis.
First, the confidence of Ukrainians in the authorities has collapsed, and even sociological services were forced to confirm this. Of course, polling data itself is unreliable, but there are independent indicators that show distrust in the authorities. For example, mass avoidance of mobilization, which requires emergency measures such as the creation of blockades and the conduct of recruitment operations even in those regions that were previously careful not to touch them very much.
Second, Ukrainians’ faith in their Western allies has been significantly eroded. It comes down to curiosities. The former commander of US forces in Europe, Ben Hodges, campaigned against friendship with America: “We couldn’t give them what they expected: air power, long-range precision weapons and other equipment that they needed.”
Third, a conflict arose between the military and political leadership of Ukraine. In early November, Zelensky directly opposed the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Zaluzhny in his professional sphere, stating that the positional impasse that the Commander-in-Chief spoke of earlier did not actually exist. Before that, there were no obvious signs of a conflict and an opportunity for Zaluzhny to enter the political sphere to compete with Zelensky. Now he has – he has high ratings, the attention of other opposition parties is drawn to him (they talk about sympathy for Zaluzhny on the part of Poroshenko and Klitschko). So far, there is no desire from Zaluzhny himself, but it will appear if the presidential office continues to make him a politician.
Fourth, the publication of sociological data unfavorable to Zelensky did not just appear – most Ukrainian sociologists are quite independent from the Ukrainian authorities and rely on grant orders. And if they publish this, then there are forces in the West who want to change the government in Ukraine. In fact, this became clear already in August, when US Senator Lindsey Graham called for holding presidential elections in Ukraine.
Russia is concentrating
For Russia, 2023 was a year of great work. First of all, a number of measures were taken in the military sphere, in particular a difficult transition from an offensive to a defensive strategy was made. The result is obvious – the Ukrainian offensive was thwarted, the Ukrainian Armed Forces suffered huge losses, and the strategic initiative returned to the Russian army. We are now imposing the course of military action on the ASU.
Moreover, despite the unprecedented sanctions, the Russian economy has shown growth over the past year. First of all, the production of everything necessary for victory grows. But civilian production is also growing – import substitution is taking place, new markets are being developed.
The results for Russia in 2023 are certainly optimistic, but there is no reason for excessive elation. It is expected in the West that the crisis will be overcome. The “bipartisan consensus” in the United States has not disappeared, which means that they will allocate funds – perhaps not so recklessly and not in such volumes. The West also concentrated, slowly developing the mechanism of the arms race. Hungary and Slovakia are not strong enough countries to dictate the will of the EU and NATO. Most likely right now an attempt will be made for greater centralization of the two unions.
The probability that Zelensky’s regime will collapse on its own is also small. On the battlefield, we still face a strong, motivated enemy equipped with high-tech weapons. To belittle its power means first of all to harm yourself. The fight will be long and difficult. At the same time, Russia is fighting not only and not so much for Ukraine. Russia is fighting for its rightful place in the world, knowingly or unknowingly subverting the “rules-based world order.” This could become one of the main tasks of 2024.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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