Defense expert Ko Colijn has been providing Dutch people with insight into armed conflicts for almost fifty years. For NU.nl he follows the battle in Ukraine and answers our (and your) questions. This time he discusses how 2023 was a year full of twists and turns.
In four respects, 2023 was a year of reversal in the war between Ukraine and Russia.
In the beginning, optimism prevailed everywhere. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s strategy to shame Ukrainians and break their morale failed. The winter rockets on Ukrainian energy hubs and civilian apartment buildings in Odesa, Kyiv and Lviv in the west did not have the desired effect.
With Western military help, Ukraine survived the winter. Russia did not make any progress, despite its air superiority and the large number of soldiers. While the major Ukrainian reconquests in the autumn of 2022 left Kyiv wanting more.
Dutch talk shows also repeatedly announced the Ukrainian victory and said that Putin had overplayed his hand. Ukraine would finish the job in June with a counter-offensive and a push to the south.
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Ukrainian soldiers curl with anti-tank mines
Summer offensive failed
But that story turned from a final victory to a stalemate in the early summer. From then on the picture changed.
The Ukrainian summer offensive failed. The Russians even hit back a little and launched the slogan “active defense” in late summer. Russia sacrificed tens of thousands of soldiers to conquer Bakhmut and still Avdiivka and Marinka. Mine fields were laid to halt the Ukrainian advance in the east. Cities were bombarded with cruise missiles and drones.
The only problem Russia faced was the numbers. They dragged cannon fodder from everywhere and nowhere and they combated the shortage of ammunition with the help of North Korea and Iran.
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Is the war in Ukraine now at an impasse or not?
Fewer weapons from the West
After the summer, Western arms aid to Ukraine stagnated. In the United States, right-wing Republicans are blocking President Joe Biden’s broader vision. They are holding arms aid to Ukraine hostage.
Kyiv could think of little else and, just to be on the safe side, wants to make weapons himself. But that takes time. The production of no fewer than one million Ukrainian drones is planned for 2024.
And what is the scenario if Donald Trump becomes Biden’s successor next year? By ‘as long as it takes’ Biden’s gun commitment on December 13 was changed to ‘as long as we can’.
Just as bad is the attitude of figures such as Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico and French politician Marine Le Pen in Europe. Pro-Putin leaders who want to thwart the will of the majority of voters. Perhaps PVV leader Geert Wilders will join that line. A year ago, such policies were a distant fantasy, but now they are real shadows.
‘Priority for war in Gaza’
A third twist is the war in Gaza. After October 7, Ukraine was pushed aside from the news and ended up on page seven of the newspapers. Not the death of mercenary boss Yevgeny Prigozhin or the fall of Bakhmut, but the Al Shifa hospital is now making the front page.
While we should continue to worry about the war in Ukraine. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) published the reports on December 14 and 22 The High Price of Losing Ukraine. The ISW calculated that a Ukrainian loss will cost us billions annually in (alone) a NATO force from the Northern Cape to the Mediterranean, while continuing arms aid would be a pittance.
British-South African journalist Simon Kuper reckoned Financial Times explains that it would only cost the average European 70 euros per year to take on the entire Ukrainian burden, excluding the US.
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Malicious noises
A fourth twist became ‘the Ukrainian narrative’. That changed from “fight until you drop” to “just negotiate with Putin”.
This was expressed most clearly by journalist Gideon Rachman in the Financial Times. He advocates a “Korean solution”: an eternal ceasefire that is not sold as a defeat but as a temporary victory, because Russia has not achieved its goal of occupying all of Ukraine. Only Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky still needs to be convinced of this.
Some argue that the United States has been pushing for this for some time by reducing arms aid. Putin would have to settle for a quarter of Ukraine, and three quarters of Ukraine as a future EU and NATO member would “be worth it”.
Don’t let yourself be talked down to
I myself have some skepticism about this gloom. The Ukrainian counter-offensive may not have achieved the desired success on land, but it did achieve the desired success around and in Crimea. The Black Sea is no longer a Russian inland waterway. Sevastopol, the Kerch Bridge and the airports are unsafe for the Russians and Ukrainian grain can leave Odesa.
Financial solutions will be found for the stagnant Western arms flow, if only to enable the Ukrainians to hold out for another year.
In addition, the Russian losses since the start of the war have been incredibly high. Figures point to 357,000 dead soldiers, almost 6,000 destroyed tanks, 11,000 armored personnel carriers and more than 650 fighter planes and helicopters.
The Ukrainian economy groans and groans, but is growing 5 percent faster than the Russian ‘war economy’. We should not let ourselves be talked into, because Ukraine can win.
2023-12-31 13:20:00
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