NEW YORK — There is just over a month until this winter season ends and meteorological spring begins on March 1.
In November, The Authority in Weather analyzed the global and seasonal characteristics that would play a larger role in how our 2023-2024 winter season would play out.
The official forecast from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) indicated that the East Coast will likely be warmer than normal and wetter than normal thanks to the established El Niño event that drives the tropical jet stream far enough south. to allow more storms in our area.
Figure 1: Temperature trend for the months of December, January and February (NOAA) Figure 2: Precipitation trend for the months of December, January and February (NOAA)
In any case, the wild card is usually whether it is cold enough to sustain snowfall instead of rain or even mixed precipitation.
So how is winter shaping up so far? Very warm and rainy, as had been predicted.
TEMPERATURES
More than 75% of the month of December recorded high temperatures above average. That’s 24 of 31 days with higher-than-normal temperatures, compared to just seven that were lower than normal. Temperature trends in January have been much less unbalanced, with a marked cold snap from the 15th to the 22nd.
Despite the cold wave, above-average temperatures continue to prevail throughout the month of January. The average temperature for the month is almost two degrees above normal, with 14 days of above-average high temperatures compared to eleven days with below-average highs.
Speaking of freezing conditions, a typical winter should leave us with at least 17 days with highs equal to or below 32 F, however, this current season, we have only added 6 freezing days.
Figure 3: Days with maximum temperatures equal to or lower than 32F (source: NOAA)
PRECIPITATION
The meteorological winter has been quite active, with ten days of rain reported in December totaling 6.71” in Central Park. That is more than two inches above the 4.38” that is considered normal for the month. This period included multiple significant floods, especially along some New Jersey area rivers, which remained in moderate to major flood stage for several days.
So far, January has followed a similar path, with twelve days of rain reported, for a total of 3.98”. Normal precipitation for the month as of this writing is 2.85”, so we continue to exceed precipitation expectations in all three states.
But available moisture is just one ingredient of a healthy winter season. It needs to coincide with healthy doses of cold air to produce snow. We have seen all the ingredients come together for minimal snowfall in the city, but not enough to come close to our historically “normal” 8.8” of snowfall for the month of January.
Figure 4: Average snow by month (source: NOAA)
WHATS NEXT?
While snow lovers in New York City may still be hoping for bigger, clearer snowfalls, we haven’t given up hope yet.
Climatologically, February is our coldest and snowiest month, with normal snowfalls of about four inches! Additionally, most of the largest snowstorms on record occurred toward the end of the winter season, between late February and March. There are also signs that colder temperatures will return with a vengeance in late January and early February, but whether all of these ingredients come together at the right time remains to be seen.
Longer term, the current outlook for the entire month of February calls for warmer than normal temperatures here in the Northeast. If you love snow, let’s hope the cold air at the beginning of the month is accompanied by some decent snow, because winter’s days are numbered!
2024-01-26 03:05:41
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