©Reuters. FILE PHOTO: A supporter of U.S. President Donald Trump holds a campaign sign outside the Republican headquarters in Union City, Pennsylvania, U.S. October 23, 2020. REUTERS/Shannon Stapleton/File Photo
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By Nathan Layne and Jason Lange
PHILADELPHIA (Reuters) – Republicans are registering former Democratic voters four times as fast as Democrats are making the reverse conversion in the battleground state of Pennsylvania, a warning sign for Democrats trying to retain control of the US Congress.
Republican gains in Pennsylvania, home of a critical race in the US Senate, follow a pattern seen in other states that could have competitive contests in November’s election, given high levels of disapproval of President Joe Biden’s handling of his job is helping to narrow the Democrats’ long-held advantage in terms of registered voters.
“I was just fed up and just felt like there had to be a better way,” said Beth Jones, 48, a retired Philadelphia police officer who last month registered as a Republican, marking her three-decade affiliation with the Democratic Party party ended.
Similar to other converts recently polled by Reuters, Jones cited concerns about inflation and violent crime when making the move.
Reuters examined registration data in six states that could see close races in the US Senate in November, and which generally require voters to be members of a party to participate in nominating contests. While each state tracks voter registration differently, the review indicated Republican gains in four of those states and no material difference in two of them.
If Republicans regain control of either house of Congress in the Nov. 8 midterm elections, it will give them the power to stall Biden’s legislative agenda.
“BAD NEWS FOR DEMOCRATS”
Nowhere is Republican progress on voter registration more evident than in Pennsylvania, where Republicans have converted four Democrats for every Republican who switched to the Democratic Party so far this year, according to data released by the Pennsylvania State Department. That’s on track to be the highest conversion rate in at least a decade and well past 2016, when Republicans took the White House, House of Representatives and Senate.
“This is bad news for Democrats,” said Kevan Yenerall, a political scientist at Clarion University in Clarion, Pennsylvania.
While registered Democrats in Pennsylvania still outnumber registered Republicans by more than half a million — 4 million Democrats versus 3.4 million Republicans on March 28, 2005.
The smaller gap could have significant implications for the race to succeed US Republican Senator Pat Toomey. Pennsylvanians will also vote for governor in November to succeed Democrat Tom Wolf.
In North Carolina, where a close Senate race is expected following the resignation of Republican Sen. Richard Burr, Republicans won three Democratic converts this year for every voter poached by the Democrats, according to data from the state Elections Committee. In 2021, the Republican lead was about half that.
In Florida and Nevada, registered Republicans rose in the first few months of the year, while Democratic ranks declined slightly. In New Hampshire and Arizona, the removal of inactive voters from registration lists has caused both parties to lose similar numbers of voters in recent months.
PHILADELPHIA PRINT
Jeff Sheridan, a senior adviser to the Democratic Party in Pennsylvania, said the party isn’t sitting on its hands. Efforts include hiring field staff for an election year earlier than usual, including hiring staff in January at the Philadelphia college campus working to register younger voters, a demographic leaning towards Democrats.
But Republicans are also gaining ground in Philadelphia, a traditional stronghold of the Democrats. Voter data shows that 1,315 Democrats in the city filed forms this year to change their party registration to Republican, more than four times as many Republicans making the opposite change.
Not all Republican conversions that show up in registration data mean net losses for Democrats.
Angered by the violent crime surge in the city, Alexandra Field said she registered as a Democrat last year to oust Philadelphia District Attorney Larry Krasner in the Democratic primary before re-registering as a Republican in March.
Ed Rumick, 72, a retired union electrician, told Reuters that his move to the Republican party merely formalized a years-old decision to stop supporting a Democratic party he sees as weak on border control and committed to socialism.
But Calvin Tucker, vice chairman of the Pennsylvania Republican Party, said the gains indicate strong performance by the party.
From the party’s recently opened office in Northwest Philadelphia, Tucker estimated that petitioning campaigns and other efforts to reach out to blacks and other traditionally “underserved communities” in the city have produced more than 100 converts or newly registered Republicans so far this year had.
“It’s a city-wide reach,” Tucker said. “We will canvass customers, knock on doors, stand on corners and talk to citizens and neighbors about who we are and what we want to achieve.”
In addition to inflation and other economic woes, a growing number of Pennsylvania voters are disillusioned with the Democratic Party because of its perceived leftward swing on cultural matters, said Terry Madonna, a senior fellow-in-residence at Millersville University and a longtime political analyst in the state.
Madonna pointed to Republican Glenn Youngkin, who won Virginia’s governorship last year after campaigning for a promise to ban critical race theory classes in schools, as an indicator of what will resonate with Pennsylvania voters.
“It’s not just inflation,” Madonna said, noting that Republicans had a string of victories in the local elections in the Philadelphia suburbs last year. “I think it’s a combination of things.”
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