– There will certainly be higher temperatures in the coming years. The amount of CO₂ in the atmosphere is increasing and the temperature in Europe will get hotter and warmer until we get a zero-emission society, says Cicero senior researcher Benjamin Sanderson at Dagbladet.
He believes it’s not very surprising with the high temperatures Europe experienced this fall given the development of climate change.
Still new heat records
– We will not have the prolonged cold periods that we have had in the past, but we will have extremely hot periods that come more often. We see this in climate records, where new heat records are set more frequently than cold records, Sanderson says.
– 2022 is already the hottest year on record, meteorologist Frederic Nathan told Meteo France, adding that although Indian summers have not been unusual, the degree of warming has reached record highs in recent years.
In much of Europe it still feels like late summer and has recently been over 30 degrees in several places. This latest hot period follows a series of other records set during the spring and summer.
SWIMMING SEASON: This year it is entirely possible to swim in the Mediterranean in November. The temperature outside Nice in France was around 20 degrees a few days ago. Photo: AP / NTB.
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In several places in Europe the temperature was between 25 and 30 degrees Celsius and in several places record temperatures were recorded:
* In Switzerland, 25 degrees were measured, a record so late in the year. The same happened in Slovenia, where on October 30 it was 26 degrees. The same happened in several places in Germany.
* In Lomnè in France, on 29 October a new record was set with 33.3 degrees Celsius. In Belgium, 25 degrees were recorded.
* A tropical night above 1000 meters of altitude was recorded in Austria on 30 October. The temperature did not drop below 20.4 degrees.
* In Spain, temperatures of 35 degrees Celsius were recorded in several places on 27 October. A record high of 35.8 degrees was measured on October 18.
Source: Meteorological Institute
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Frederic Nathan of the French weather forecasting service Meteo France says 2022 is already the hottest year on record.
– Every year you see dozens of heat records and hardly any cold records. It’s a typical sign of climate change, adds Nathan Reuters news agency.
The bathing temperature on the Côte d’Azur is still 20 – 21 degrees at multiple points when we write November 1st.
– I haven’t turned on the heat in my apartment yet, Rose-Marie Martini told Reuters when they met her on the beach just outside Nice.
– 100 years since the last time
While October was overall a hot month in Europe, this late fall heatwave has peaked in recent weeks. Record high temperatures, with temperatures of 20 degrees above the norm, which stretched from Scandinavia through central and western Europe and south to North Africa.
Saturday was the hottest day on record since October 20 in France, wrote Etienne Kapikian on Twitter, a meteorologist from the country’s Meteo France meteorological agency.
– We have never seen heat like this in Europe at this end of the year, he writes.
The heat looks set to continue for some time to come, and particularly in Eastern Europe with further records likely to drop in the coming days. Apart from a brief cooling in the first week of November, there is little change in the broader weather pattern going forward. Warmer-than-normal conditions are expected to persist for a while in much of Europe, he writes Washington Post.
Wetter in Scandinavia
In the northern part of Europe, you can also see that there are tendencies to get wetter. When it comes to rainfall, it is much more difficult to calculate, and the senior researcher believes that in order to get a clear picture of the drought, the weather data must be simulated many times to find the answers.
– We should expect that climate change will also affect both extreme rainfall and drought. In the northern part of Europe, models generally agree that the future will be wetter on average and we should expect more extreme rainfall in a warmer climate, Sanderson says.
When it comes to drought, several factors come into play, says the senior researcher. Models suggest that extreme heat tends to lead to the same extreme drought we saw in Central Europe this year.
More simulations are needed
– I think we need to be prepared for weather conditions that are outside the historical framework. It is difficult to predict how our risk of drought and floods will develop, as this depends on a number of factors: the climate, but also how the earth’s surface reacts and human factors such as land use and water management. I think we have to expect the unexpected, Sanderson tells Dagbladet.
The hottest summer in history
Unusual heat has characterized Europe repeatedly since early spring.
According to the Copernicus Climate Change Service of the European Union, last summer was the hottest ever recorded for the continent, exceeding the value set in 2021 by 0.4 degrees. Heat waves were common throughout the summer in Europe and eastward to China and other parts of Asia.
Heat waves are increasing in frequency, duration, intensity and magnitude and are expected to get worse in a warming world.
– I think we need to be prepared for weather conditions that are outside the historical framework. It is difficult to predict how our risk of drought and floods will develop, as this depends on a number of factors: the climate, but also how the earth’s surface reacts and human factors such as land use and water management. I think we have to expect the unexpected, Sanderson tells Dagbladet.
The international community has set the goal that global warming should not exceed 2 degrees and preferably not be stronger than 1.5 degrees.
But countries’ national emission targets are not enough to meet the temperature targets: Global warming is likely to become significantly stronger, even as countries limit emissions as they have promised, according to a new report from the United Nations Convention on climate (UNFCCC).
– We are not yet close to emission reductions of a scale and pace that would set us on course to a world of 1.5 degrees, UNFCCC head Simon Stiell said in a statement.
2.5 degrees most likely
In the new UN report, updated national emission commitments are included in the new calculations of global temperature rise.
If all countries cut or limit emissions as they have promised, warming is likely to be between 2.1 and 2.9 degrees in the year 2100. A number of uncertain factors come into play, but the UNFCCC believes that 2 , 5 degrees are more likely to result.
There are also high temperatures in Norway. October was a hot month in most parts of the country and very hot in parts of Agder, Rogaland, Trøndelag and Nordland, reports the Meteorological Institute.
Source: Meteorologists.
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For the country as a whole, the month ended 1.6 degrees above normal, making it the warmest October 14 since measurements began in 1900. Several stations in Rogaland, Agder, Vestfold and Telemark have closed with 2-3 degrees warmer than normal for October.
– Central Europe had persistent high pressure which produced dry weather and temperatures far above normal for the time of year. In Norway we had a typically autumnal climate, with a lot of low pressure coming from the west. It was mild at times, but also a lot of rain and humid air, typical of October, says state meteorologist Kristian Gislefoss.
He points out that the month offered a varied climate in Norway.
– Snow has hit several places in the north, while southern Norway has had both several warm days and some freezing nights, says Gislefoss.
The highest temperature measured in Norway in October was 18.6 degrees in Tingvoll in Møre and Romsdal on 1 October and the same temperature measured on 2 October in Landvik in Agder.
