FHI estimates that 2–4000 young children can be admitted to hospital with the lung disease RS virus this winter. Two litters of young children have not been exposed to infection and viruses in a closed society.
After the baptism in the church in June, six-week-old Beau began to cough. Gradually it became heavier and heavier to breathe for the little body.
When Beau was finally admitted to a hospital in Matoon, Illinois in June, doctors were amazed.
Beau was infected with a common virus among children, namely the RS virus. The unusual thing was that the virus appeared in the summer.
– We have never seen this before, the doctors told the news agency Ap.
In recent weeks, the same thing has happened in Denmark, Sweden, England, Japan and Australia, among others.
The Norwegian Institute of Public Health is now presenting new figures and estimates. They show that the RS virus is spreading faster and faster in Norway as well, two months earlier than expected.
This can have major consequences.
Estimates a doubling of patients with the RS virus
Almost everyone who is admitted with the RS virus is under 5 years old. Most are under 1 year old.
- Normally, the RS virus causes 1000-2000 hospitalizations of young children. This year, FHI estimates a doubling.
- “This year’s epidemic we estimate could lead to perhaps 2,000 – 4,000 admissions, with perhaps a few more one-year-olds and two-year-olds than normal,” he writes. FHI.
“We anticipate that the coming RSV epidemic will start in September-October and may be twice as large as the normal epidemics,” FHI writes in a note to the Norwegian Directorate of Health and Minister of Health Bent Høie.
It is emphasized that the estimates are very uncertain, like all other estimates that try to predict the future.
What is certain is that the number has increased sharply in recent weeks. 1300 children were tested in week 36. 5 percent had the RS virus.
Three weeks ago, the proportion was positive at about 2 per cent.
Most cases are in Viken, Møre og Romsdal, Vestland and Oslo. But it is also the counties that test the most.
–Why is this important?
When the government decided to reopen Norway on Friday, the health authorities made some important reservations.
The health authorities do not rule out that the capacity of the hospitals may be blown up this winter. Not just because of the coronavirus.
One problem is that the rs wave can be twice as large as usual.
This can also happen at the same time as there is a big flu wave.
In such a situation, the health authorities do not rule out the possibility of new infection measures.
“The overall burden, which also includes influenza and RS virus, is becoming more crucial,” he said the government.
The bright spot is that it is considered “unlikely” that it will be on the same scale as in March 2020 and the winter of 2021.
Preparing hospitals to accommodate many young children
Astrid Elisabeth Rojahn is a specialist in pediatrics and chief physician at Ullevål hospital.
There they make concrete plans to be able to receive many sick toddlers:
- It increases the room capacity.
- Consider postponing scheduled treatments.
- Collaborates with Rikshospitalet.
During last year’s winter season, almost no children were admitted with respiratory infections. Rojahn explains this with the massive hygienic measures, at the same time as society shut down.
– This led to the infection not spreading. That is why there are two litters of small children out there who have not been exposed to infection before, says Rojahn.
She believes this will probably lead to a significantly larger epidemic, which also begins earlier.
– We already see the contours of this at Ullevål, where we have several children hospitalized with RS virus. This is unusually early. The season usually does not start until November at the earliest, says Rojahn. She believes this could be a challenge for the country’s pediatric clinics.
This is how the RS virus spreads
Children who are admitted with the RS virus receive treatment that relieves the symptoms. This is mainly about nutritional support and extra oxygen.
The reason they are often admitted is that they have great difficulty breathing. This in turn causes them to become tired and unable to eat. Therefore, they need extra oxygen. A few children become so ill that they need extra breathing assistance and intensive care.
The forecasts are generally very good.
– These children are doing well, but it is not uncommon for them to need a stay of up to a week or a little longer, says Rojahn.
The infection spreads via droplets, or direct contact with snot from the infected patient.
Children can spread the infection up to 1-2 weeks after the onset of symptoms.
The disease can be prevented. But it is expensive. It is only given to children who have an increased risk of having a serious course, including premature babies born before 35 weeks and certain groups of children with heart and lung disease.
– We’re not going to paint the hell on the wall. But we must take into account that this can be very demanding also in Norway.
This is what chief physician Ole Kristian Fossum from the intensive care unit at Akershus University Hospital says.
One of the challenges is that young children require advanced special skills and their own child-intensive beds.
– Ahus and the Children and Adolescents’ Clinic are now building emergency preparedness to be able to receive extra attendance from RS-sick children. The worst RS-sick children are sent to Ullevål. We are now also working on emergency preparedness with a view to filling their eight places, says Fossum.
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